SYNTHESIS OF FLOWS The flow of information on Airbus is mixed but recently leans towards the positive with an upgrade from Citi and a significant order from China. However, the price does not validate this optimism, suggesting a price/flow divergence. Concerns persist about the execution risks of the A320/A350 programs and controversies over the SCAF project. This situation indicates that the market remains cautious, potentially in a distribution or absorption phase before defining a new clear direction. TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE The stock is evolving in a structural BEARISH trend, positioned below its 20-day (€184.41) and 200-day (€190.79) moving averages, which act as dynamic resistances. The current price of €175.12 is in a consolidation zone after a technical rebound initiated on March 9. The RSI(14) at 32.16 flirts with the oversold zone, which could limit the downside potential in the short term. The volume of the day, very low (20% of the average), confirms a pause in the selling pressure but does not indicate any significant buying initiative. The major support to watch is at €166.60. SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS
Base Scenario (45%): Consolidation. The stock oscillates in a range between the support at €166.60 and the short-term resistance at €180.00. The low RSI counterbalances the underlying BEARISH trend, creating a temporary equilibrium in the absence of a major catalyst. BEARISH Scenario (40%): Resumption of the Trend. Technical weakness prevails. A confirmed break of the support at €166.60 would trigger a new wave of sales, invalidating the recent rebound. Catalysts: degradation of global market sentiment, negative news on the supply chain. BULLISH Scenario (15%): Technical Rebound. Capitalizing on positive news and an oversold RSI, buyers manage to break through the €180-€184 zone. Catalysts: announcement of a new large order, resolution of production problems.
AEGIS VERDICT The verdict is BEARISH from a tactical point of view. Although the RSI is low, the price structure remains weak below descending moving averages. The recent rebound lacks volumetric conviction and looks like a correction in a BEARISH trend. As long as the stock does not sustainably move back above the €181-€184 zone, the risk of a new attack on the support at €166.60 remains the preferred scenario. The strategy is to short the strength or wait for a break of the support to confirm.