FLOW SUMMARY
The term structure of natural gas is currently neutral (-0.2% compared to the 3-month contract), indicating no particular tension on immediate physical supply. Trading volumes over the last five days are in line with the monthly average (+4%), suggesting that the recent price increase occurred without overwhelming volumetric conviction. The aggregation of these market flows does not give a clear directional bias, which reinforces a wait-and-see posture. The aggregate flow bias is therefore NEUTRAL.
TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE
After a strong push of +11.7% over 20 days, natural gas is showing signs of exhaustion, hitting short-term resistance at $3.13. The price is currently consolidating around $3.04, remaining above its 20-day moving average ($2.80), which constitutes the first dynamic support. The RSI, at 66, flirts with the overbought zone and argues for a pause or correction in the short term. The 200-day moving average, located at $3.42, remains a potential medium-term target in the event of a recovery, but the current dynamic does not favor an imminent breakout.
SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS
Base Scenario (Neutral) - 55% probability: The market enters a consolidation phase and evolves within a range between the SMA20 support at $2.80 and the resistance at $3.13. Uncertainty related to the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project counterbalances persistent tensions in the global LNG market, creating a temporary balance of forces.
BULLISH Scenario - 30% probability: A new geopolitical escalation impacting LNG supply or a summer heat wave in the United States could provide the catalyst needed for a breakout of the resistance at $3.13. In this case, the next target would be the SMA200 at $3.42.
BEARISH Scenario - 15% probability: A geopolitical detente, combined with higher-than-expected gas storage figures in the United States, could lead to a break of the support at $2.80. This would pave the way for a return to the major support of the last 6 months at $2.48.
AEGIS VERDICT
In a BULL market regime, this NEUTRAL signal on natural gas (NG=F) reflects a necessary technical consolidation after a strong rise and the introduction of fundamental uncertainty (Siberia 2 pipeline). The previous bullish thesis is paused. The signal is triggered on the expectation of a decisive daily close outside the $2.80 - $3.13 range for a new directional signal. The levels to watch are the support at $2.80 (bearish TP1) and the resistance at $3.13 (bullish TP1). The final target in the event of a bullish breakout remains $3.42. Recommended sizing: Zero position (0x) pending clarification.