FLOW SUMMARY

Risk aversion dominates market flows. The VIX has surged by +39.68% to 21.51, signaling strong demand for protection and a direct negative correlation with the Nasdaq. This flight to safety is corroborated by the underperformance of credit markets, with HYG (high-yield debt) down -0.50%. Concurrently, the rise in long-term rates (T10Y at 4.54%) exerts direct pressure on the valuation multiples of technology stocks, which are leading the sectoral decline. The aggregate of these institutional flows indicates a clear and powerful NEGATIVE bias in the short term.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

The current session is characterized by a sharp BEARISH impulse of -3.12%, breaking through the psychological and technical support level of 26,000 points. This break occurred with significant volumes, at 117% of the monthly average, validating institutional selling pressure. The index is now trading well below its 20-day moving average (26,476 pts), which now acts as a primary major resistance. The RSI at 41.29 is not yet in oversold territory, suggesting residual BEARISH potential before a potential consolidation. The next notable technical support is located at 24,491 pts.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

  • BEARISH Scenario (45% probability): The correction intensifies under the combined effect of persistent geopolitical tensions and firm long-term rates. The VIX remains above 20. The index continues its trajectory towards the monthly support at 24,500 pts.
  • Base Scenario (40% probability): Following the sharp decline, the index finds temporary support around the 25,500 pts area. A phase of lateral consolidation ensues, contained between 25,500 and 26,500 pts, as the market digests macroeconomic and geopolitical news.
  • BULLISH Scenario (15% probability): An unexpected catalyst (geopolitical de-escalation, inflation figures significantly below expectations) triggers a sharp reversal. The index quickly reclaims the 26,500 pts level, invalidating the BEARISH break.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a broadly BULLISH market regime but facing significant short-term tension (VIX > 21, SPY down -2.5% over 5 days), this BEARISH signal on the Nasdaq 100 is part of a sectoral correction and risk aversion dynamic. The elevated geopolitical context (RAS 70) justifies a cautious approach and confirms the BEARISH thesis initiated earlier. The signal is triggered by the confirmation of the daily break below 26,000 pts with above-average volumes. The first target is set at 24,500 pts, with a final target at 23,325 pts. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).