FLOW SUMMARY

The Natural Gas market exhibits a probable term structure in backwardation of +10.9% relative to the 3-month contract, signaling tightness in physical supply and structural BULLISH support. The Dollar Index (DXY) is slightly down at 100.52 (-0.42%), which tends to be favorable for commodities. Regarding volumetric flows, the 5-day average volume is 8% below the 30-day average, while the price has fallen by 9.90% over the same period. This price decline without significant capitulation volume indicates technical weakness rather than aggressive distribution. In summary, the biases are MIXED: backwardation and a weakened DXY are structural BULLISH factors, while recent underperformance with normal volume suggests technical consolidation. Overall energy risk, although high, acts as a positive catalyst for this asset.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

The current price of Natural Gas stands at $2.89, testing the key short-term support at $2.85. The RSI(14) is at 32.05, indicating the asset is in oversold territory, which could precede a technical rebound. The price is trading well below its moving averages (SMA20 at $3.15 and SMA200 at $3.46), confirming a BEARISH trend in the short and medium term. Major supports are located at $2.85 (1-month) and $2.48 (6-month), while resistances are at $3.44 (1-month) and $7.83 (6-month). Over the last three days, Natural Gas recorded a decline of -1.16% followed by near-stability, before falling -0.92% intraday. Intraday volume is very low, at only 1% of its monthly average, which does not validate strong institutional selling pressure. Despite a BULLISH position opened on 07/02/2026 at $3.1770 showing a loss of -5.19% at D+5, the underlying structural catalysts remain valid and even strengthened.

MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

On the main horizon (medium term, 20-60 days):

BULLISH Scenario (Probability 65%): Natural Gas could rebound and head towards the resistance at $3.80. This scenario is supported by the escalation of geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, particularly the incident at the Zaporizhzhia power plant, which strengthens the energy risk premium. The backwardation term structure at +10.9% continues to indicate tightness in physical supply. A declining Dollar Index (DXY) and an oversold RSI (32.05) also offer technical support for a rebound. The BULL market regime of the S&P 500 and a VIX at 15.67 indicate general risk appetite, while the macro-structural risk for Natural Gas is considered favorable (low RAS at 39/100, benefiting from high energy risk). Catalysts: Escalation of geopolitical tensions in Ukraine (Zaporizhzhia incident), maintenance of the backwardation term structure (+10.9%), weakness of the Dollar Index (DXY), oversold RSI (32.05) suggesting a technical rebound.

BASE Scenario (Probability 15%): Natural Gas could consolidate around current levels, between $2.85 and $3.15. This scenario would materialize if geopolitical tensions do not intensify further and if demand remains stable without major catalysts. Short-term technical weakness could persist, preventing a strong directional move. Catalysts: Stabilization of geopolitical tensions, moderate seasonal demand, absence of new supply shocks.

BEARISH Scenario (Probability 20%): The price could break the support at $2.85 and head towards $2.48. This scenario would be triggered by an unexpected de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, a reversal of the term structure into contango, or a significant increase in gas inventories. A confirmed break of the $2.85 support with high volume would be a warning signal. Catalysts: Major de-escalation of tensions in Ukraine, reversal of the term structure into contango, unexpected increase in gas inventories.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime (SPY > MA50 > MA200), this BULLISH signal on Natural Gas (NG=F) is based on the reinforcement of geopolitical risks and the backwardation term structure. Macro risk remains high, but favorable to the asset - a Risk/Reward ratio of 4.25:1 is required. The signal triggers on a daily close above $2.95. The first target (TP1) is set at $3.44, corresponding to the short-term resistance. The final target (TP2) is at $3.80, aiming for a more significant recovery in the structural context. The stop-loss is positioned at $2.75 to manage risk. Recommended sizing: standard (1x).