FLOW SUMMARY

Sentiment on Amazon is currently mixed, with a dominance of calls (Put/Call Ratio at 0.80) indicating short-term bullish speculative appetite. However, this orientation is tempered by significant institutional activity in Dark Pools, with 18,040,088 shares traded for a notional value of $2.56 billion. Such high OTC volume, in a context of price decline (-6.5% over 5 days), suggests potential institutional distribution or portfolio rebalancing. The aggregate flow bias is therefore MIXED, with a divergence between speculative options sentiment and observed pressure on institutional flows.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

Amazon is currently trading at $233.66, below its key moving averages (SMA20 at $243.58 and SMA200 at $234.53), signaling bearish pressure in the short and medium term. The RSI(14) at 40.46 indicates bearish momentum without being in oversold territory. The dynamics of the last three days show an acceleration of the decline with increasing volumes (27.7M, 34.1M, 47.4M), even though today's volume (87% of the monthly average) has not yet reached a capitulation threshold. This volumetric trend on the downside suggests persistent selling pressure. Key technical levels are support at $225.55 (1-month) and major support at $196.00 (6-month). Immediate resistance is at $234.53 (SMA200) then $243.58 (SMA20).

SCENARIOS & MACROECONOMIC CATALYSTS

On the main horizon (medium term, 20-60 days):

BEARISH Scenario (55% probability): The stock continues its correction below the SMA200, amplified by pre-earnings uncertainties and institutional selling flows. Persistent geopolitical tensions (elevated RAS at 66/100) and pressure on valuation multiples due to high rates (T10Y at 4.70%) weigh on sentiment. A disappointment in earnings forecasts or an escalation of macroeconomic conflicts could accelerate the decline towards the $196.00 support.

BASE Scenario (30% probability): The price stabilizes around current levels, consolidating between $225.55 and $240.00 before the earnings release. The absence of major negative macroeconomic news and cautious anticipation of results could limit volatility. The market would await clarifications on growth prospects and margins before taking a clear direction.

BULLISH Scenario (15% probability): A technical rebound is initiated by a positive surprise in earnings or a significant improvement in the macroeconomic context (geopolitical détente, rate cuts). The stock could then attempt to reclaim the SMA200 and SMA20, targeting the $258.08 resistance. This scenario is unlikely given the current momentum and persistent macro risks.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a CORRECTION regime (SPY below MA50), this BEARISH signal on AMZN is based on the persistence of institutional selling pressure and uncertainties related to upcoming earnings. Macro risk remains high, with a RAS of 66/100, requiring rigorous risk management. A Risk/Reward ratio of 3.49:1 is required.

The signal triggers on a daily close below $233.00. The first target (TP1) is set at $225.55 for partial profit taking, and the second target (TP2) at $196.00 as the final objective. The stop-loss is positioned at $243.58 to limit risk. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x), given moderate conviction and unfavorable macroeconomic context.