FLOW SUMMARY
Market flow analysis reveals a dynamic favorable to a tactical rebound in EUR/USD. The main driver is the notable weakening of the Dollar Index (DXY), which is retreating to 99.79. This decline in the dollar offers direct mechanical support to the pair. At the same time, the VIX volatility index, although elevated at 22.37, shows signs of easing, suggesting that risk aversion is not intensifying, which allows currency dynamics to express themselves. The aggregation of these signals indicates a currently mixed to positive flow bias for the EUR/USD.
TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE
The EUR/USD pair is stabilizing on a critical technical support identified at $1.14. The current price of $1.15 is holding above this key level, despite selling pressure in recent weeks. The RSI (14) momentum indicator is at 31.58, on the edge of the oversold zone (<30), which signals a potential exhaustion of the BEARISH trend and opens the way for a reversion to the mean. The main resistance zone is at $1.17, where the 20 and 200-day moving averages converge. Transaction volume, at 100% of its average, does not indicate increased selling pressure, reinforcing the thesis of consolidation on support.
SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS
BULLISH Scenario (55% probability): A technical rebound is starting from the support of $1.14. Catalysts: continued weakness of the DXY, stabilization of the VIX below 25, and technical confirmation by the RSI exiting its oversold zone. The initial target would be the resistance zone of the moving averages at $1.17, with a possible extension towards $1.18.
Base Scenario (20% probability): The asset enters a phase of lateral consolidation, oscillating in a narrow corridor between the support at $1.14 and the immediate resistance at $1.155. Catalysts: stabilization of the DXY and absence of major macroeconomic news to catalyze a clear direction.
BEARISH Scenario (25% probability): Selling pressure resumes and leads to a clear break of the support at $1.14. Catalysts: a marked rebound of the DXY above 100.5, renewed risk aversion (VIX > 25) or disappointing economic data in the euro zone. The next BEARISH target would then be towards $1.12.
AEGIS VERDICT
In a market regime in CORRECTION (SPY below its MA50), this BULLISH signal on the EUR/USD is tactical in nature and relies on holding the support at $1.14 as well as the current weakness of the dollar (DXY). The moderate macroeconomic risk requires rigorous risk management, with an R/R ratio of 2.72:1. We adopt a cautious BULLISH position, conditional on confirmation of technical and flow catalysts. The signal will be invalidated in the event of a break of key support.