FLOW SUMMARY

The market is currently characterized by high tension, as evidenced by the VIX at 27.61, signaling increased implied volatility. The Dollar Index (DXY) shows a slight increase to 100.11, which tends to put pressure on risky assets and commodities. The 10-year US rates (T10Y) are also progressing to 4.35%, reinforcing the attractiveness of safe-haven bond assets and weighing on equity valuations.

In this context, WTI oil is recording a sharp increase of +10.91%, reflecting geopolitical tensions and supply risks. Paradoxically, Gold, usually a safe-haven asset, is down, indicating complex capital flows and potentially profit-taking. The S&P 500 is down, and credit indices (TLT, LQD) show a slight degradation or stagnation, suggesting general caution in the market.

In summary, the aggregate signals are MIXED, with a clear predominance of NEGATIVE biases due to high volatility, rising rates and macro-geopolitical uncertainties.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

The Nasdaq 100 (ticker ^IXIC) is currently trading at 21840.95 pts. The index is below its key moving averages, with the price below the SMA(20) at 22031.44 pts and below the SMA(200) at 22328.66 pts, which indicates a BEARISH technical structure in the short and medium term. The RSI(14) is at 44.45, confirming NEUTRAL to slightly BEARISH momentum.

Over the past three days, the index has experienced high volatility: after a decline of -1.43% on March 30, it rebounded by +2.50% on March 31, before a slight increase of +0.45% intraday today. The volume of the day is at 97% of its monthly average, which does not signal abnormal institutional buying or selling pressure, but rather consolidation in an uncertain environment. Key levels to watch are support at 20690.25 pts (6M and 1M) and resistance at 23169.68 pts (1M).

SCENARIOS & MACROECONOMIC CATALYSTS

BEARISH Scenario (50% probability): The Nasdaq 100 could break the support of 21700 pts and head towards 20690.25 pts. This scenario would be catalyzed by an escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, higher-than-expected inflation data leading to more aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed, or a more pronounced degradation of global credit conditions. The persistence of a high VIX and a critical RAS (81/100) would reinforce this dynamic.

Base Scenario (35% probability): The index could consolidate between 21700 pts and 22031.44 pts (SMA20). This transition scenario would be fueled by mixed news regarding de-escalation in the Middle East, contradictory economic data not providing a clear direction, and an absence of major catalysts capable of breaking the current technical structure. The market would remain awaiting directional confirmations.

BULLISH Scenario (15% probability): A recovery towards the resistance of 23169.68 pts is possible, but less likely given the context. This scenario would require a significant and lasting de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, an unexpected dovish pivot by the Fed, or exceptionally strong technology company results. The low probability is justified by the market regime in transition, the critical RAS and the high VIX.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a TRANSITION regime (SPY below MA50, above MA200), this BEARISH signal on ^IXIC is strongly influenced by a critical macro-structural context (RAS 81/100) and high volatility (VIX at 27.61). The macro risk remains high, a R/R ratio of 2.52:1 is required. The signal is triggered on a daily close below 21700 pts. The objectives are set at TP1 21250 pts for partial securing, and TP2 20690.25 pts as the final target at 3 months. The stop-loss is positioned at 22100 pts to manage the risk. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).