FLOW SUMMARY

The sentiment on equities is currently unavailable, making the interpretation of flows more difficult. However, the Nasdaq 100 index shows relative strength in line with its sector (QQQ) over the last 5 and 20 days, but slight underperformance over 3 months. This suggests neutral sector dynamics in the short term, but potentially structural lag in the longer term.

Given the absence of clear sentiment data, the overall flow bias is considered MIXED, awaiting more directional catalysts.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

The Nasdaq index is currently at 22017.85 points, trading above its SMA20 (21934.47) but below its SMA200 (22364.28). The RSI(14) is at 43.99, indicating an absence of strong momentum.

The dynamics of the last three days show moderate progress, with an intraday variation of 0.41% on the current day and volumes slightly above the monthly average (109%).

Volumetric pressure is not particularly strong, suggesting a lack of clear directional conviction.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

BULLISH Scenario (30%): A break of the resistance at 23169.68 pts could pave the way for a test of the resistance at 24019.99 pts. Catalysts: Geopolitical easing, improvement in economic outlook, positive quarterly results from large-cap technology companies.

Base Scenario (45%): Consolidation between the support at 20690.25 pts and the SMA200 at 22364.28 pts. Catalysts: Persistent geopolitical uncertainty, mixed economic data, absence of major catalysts.

BEARISH Scenario (25%): A break of the support at 20690.25 pts could lead to a decline towards lower levels. Catalysts: Escalation of geopolitical tensions, deterioration of economic conditions, broader market correction.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a TRANSITION regime (SPY in ambiguous technical structure), this NEUTRAL signal on ^IXIC reflects the current market uncertainty. The macro risk remains HIGH - a R/R ratio of 2:1 is required. The signal triggers on a confirmed break of the SMA200 at 22364.28 pts or a break of the support at 20690.25 pts.

Objectives: - TP1: 23169.68 pts (if SMA200 break) or 19500 pts (if support break) - TP2: 24019.99 pts (if SMA200 break) or lower level not determined (if support break)

Recommended Sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).

Invalidation Catalysts: - Major escalation of geopolitical tensions. - Significant deterioration of economic data. - Unexpected Fed decisions. - Disappointing quarterly results from large-cap technology companies.