FLOW SUMMARY

The CAC 40 exhibits impressive relative strength, outperforming the S&P 500 over 5 days (+5.8% vs +1.4%), 20 days (+4.5% vs -2.5%) and 3 months (+0.4% vs -4.1%). The VIX, although still at a high tension level (20.48), has decreased by 20.56%, signaling a slight easing in the market. The DXY is retreating to 98.8, which is generally favorable for European assets. The T10Y is slightly up at 4.34%. The HYG and LQD show a slight improvement, indicating a stabilization of credit. The overall sentiment is therefore MIXED, with positive relative strength for the CAC 40, but persistent geopolitical and monetary tensions.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

The CAC 40 is currently at 8273.25 points, in a BULL regime (price > MA50 > MA200). The dynamics of the last three days are clearly BULLISH, with a strong intraday progression of 2.00% today. The RSI(14) is at 61.06, indicating BULLISH momentum without being in overbought territory. The volume of the day is at 0% of its monthly average, which is a point of vigilance. Key levels to watch are support at 7505.27 points and resistance at 8642.23 points.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

  • Bull Scenario (45%): The CAC 40 continues its BULLISH progression, reaching the resistance of 8642.23 points in the next 3 months. Catalysts: Publication of CAC 40 company results above expectations, significant easing of geopolitical tensions, accommodative monetary policy from the ECB.
  • Base Scenario (35%): The CAC 40 consolidates around current levels, oscillating between 8000 and 8400 points. Catalysts: Maintenance of interest rates by the ECB, stabilization of energy prices, absence of new geopolitical escalations.
  • Bear Scenario (20%): The CAC 40 corrects and tests the support at 7505.27 points. Catalysts: Significant degradation of the geopolitical situation (e.g., major escalation in the Middle East), sharp rise in interest rates, economic recession in Europe.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime (CAC 40 > MA50 > MA200), this BULLISH signal on the CAC 40 is based on its relative strength and the slight easing of the VIX. The macro risk remains high (RAS 75/100) - R/R ratio of 2.3:1 required. The signal is triggered on a break of 8300 pts. TP1: 8450 pts (partial securing), TP2: 8642.23 pts (final target at 3 months). Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).

Catalysts: * Publication of CAC 40 company results above expectations. * Significant easing of geopolitical tensions.

Invalidation: * Return below 8000 points. * VIX goes back above 25. * Significant degradation of the geopolitical situation.