FLOW SUMMARY

The WTI crude oil market is undergoing a violent decompression following announcements of a ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The term structure remains in strong backwardation, signaling persistent tension on short-term physical supply, but this technical factor is currently overshadowed by the macroeconomic catalyst. The Dollar Index (DXY), trading at 99.03, is weak, which should theoretically support commodities, but its influence is neutralized by the liquidation of the geopolitical risk premium. Transaction volumes are currently low, suggesting a phase of consolidation or waiting after the initial shock. The aggregation of these signals indicates a NEGATIVE bias in the short term, dominated by the reassessment of geopolitical risk.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

The session is marked by a spectacular selling capitulation, with a drop of more than 14% that shattered several intermediate supports. The price violently broke its 20-day moving average ($98.26), which now becomes an immediate resistance. The RSI(14) has fallen to stabilize around 50.48, indicating a total loss of the previous BULLISH momentum and a neutralization of the dynamics. The key structure to watch is the price's ability to stay below this $98-100 zone; a failure to regain it would confirm the sellers' takeover for a continuation of the correction towards the lower supports.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

BEARISH Scenario (65% probability): The ceasefire in Iran is confirmed and holds, leading to a normalization of supply and the continued liquidation of the risk premium. The price continues its correction towards the major support located at $63.60. Catalysts: official statements confirming de-escalation, increased OPEC+ production.

Base Scenario (25% probability): The market digests the initial shock and enters a phase of lateral consolidation between $90 and $100. The structural tension on supply (backwardation) counterbalances the geopolitical easing, creating a temporary equilibrium. Catalysts: absence of major news, unsurprising oil inventory data.

BULLISH Scenario (10% probability): The ceasefire proves fragile and is quickly called into question (e.g., Israeli strikes in Lebanon). The risk premium is violently reintegrated by the market, causing a rapid technical rebound and the reconquest of levels above $105. Catalysts: breakdown of the agreement, new military incident in the Middle East.

AEGIS VERDICT

In an overall BULL market regime, this BEARISH signal on WTI oil is a tactical operation driven by a major geopolitical catalyst: the ceasefire in Iran, which erases the risk premium. The risk of a resumption of volatility remains high (VIX at 21.04), and the geopolitical context remains tense despite the lull. The signal is triggered on a confirmed rejection below the SMA20 ($98.26) on a daily close. The first target (TP1) is set at $80.00 for partial securing, with a final target (TP2) at $63.60. Recommended sizing: Standard position (1x).