FLOW SUMMARY

The current context shows a mixed relative strength for TEP.PA. Over 5 days, the stock is in line with the CAC 40, but underperforms over 20 days and 3 months. The Saham group has put in place a total return derivative to strengthen its exposure to TP's capital, which may indicate internal confidence, but does not necessarily translate into immediate BULLISH momentum in the market.

The VIX is at 21.44, signaling high tension in the markets. The DXY is weak, which is generally favorable for emerging markets and commodities, but its impact is limited here. 10-year rates are normalized at 4.29%, requiring monitoring of the credit spread.

Bias Summary: MIXED.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

TEP.PA is currently at 50.30€. The dynamics of the last three days show a low intraday variation, with a current volume at 6% of its monthly average, indicating low interest for the moment. The SMA(20) at 49.70€ could act as short-term support. The SMA(200) is much higher at 63.03€, highlighting a long-term BEARISH trend.

The RSI(14) is at 48.99, indicating NEUTRAL momentum. Support levels at 45.50€ (6 months and 1 month) are crucial to maintain stability. Resistance at 60.38€ (1 month) and 68.04€ (6 months) represents significant obstacles to a recovery.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

Bear Scenario (40%): A break of the support at 45.50€ could lead to a decline towards the bottom of the analyst consensus range at 50.00€. Catalysts: deterioration of the geopolitical context, disappointing quarterly results, or a downward revision of growth prospects.

Base Scenario (45%): Consolidation around the current level of 50.30€, with fluctuations limited by the SMA(20) and the support at 45.50€. Catalysts: absence of major macroeconomic news, maintaining the VIX at high levels, and stabilization of interest rates.

Bull Scenario (15%): A break of the resistance at 60.38€ could pave the way for a test of the resistance at 68.04€. Catalysts: significant improvement in market sentiment, publication of positive results, or an announcement of a share buyback.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULLISH regime (SPY > MA50 > MA200), this NEUTRAL signal on TEP.PA reflects the absence of a clear BULLISH catalyst in a context of high geopolitical risk. The macro risk remains high - a R/R ratio of 3:1 is not achievable in this context.

The signal remains NEUTRAL as long as the price remains between 45.50€ and 60.38€. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).