FLOW SUMMARY
US equity market continues to show BULLISH momentum, supported by a VIX down to 19.54, signaling an intact appetite for risk. The weak DXY at 98.8 favors emerging markets and commodities. 10-year rates (T10Y) are at 4.29%, a normalized level, requiring monitoring of the credit spread.
The general sentiment remains positive, fueled by recent news regarding a ceasefire and optimistic outlook on the AI sector. However, the day's volume is at 54% of its monthly average, indicating moderate interest and a potential exhaustion of the rally.
Bias Summary: The overall bias is POSITIVE, but with caution signals due to lower volume and persistent macro risks.
TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE
The S&P 500 index (^GSPC) shows a clear BULLISH trend, moving above its 20 (6594.98 pts) and 200-day (6659.00 pts) moving averages. The RSI(14) is at 61.32, indicating positive momentum without signaling an overbought situation.
The momentum of the last three days is positive, with an intraday variation of 0.60% on 2026-04-09. Long-term support is at 6316.91 pts, while long-term resistance is at 7002.28 pts.
The day's volume is below the monthly average, which may indicate a lack of conviction in the continuation of the rally.
SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS
BULLISH Scenario (35%): The ^GSPC continues its progression towards the resistance of 7002.28 pts, supported by positive news on AI and favorable market sentiment. Catalysts: publication of positive quarterly results, reassuring news on the geopolitical front.
Base Scenario (40%): The index consolidates around current levels, with a fluctuation between 6700 and 6900 pts. Catalysts: absence of major news, stabilization of interest rates.
BEARISH Scenario (25%): The ^GSPC corrects towards the support of 6316.91 pts due to the persistence of geopolitical risks and inflationary concerns. Catalysts: escalation of geopolitical tensions, announcement of restrictive measures by the Fed.
AEGIS VERDICT
In a BULL regime (SPY > MA50 > MA200) but with a HIGH RAS (78/100), this BULLISH signal on ^GSPC is based on the current positive momentum and favorable market sentiment. Macro risk remains high - R/R ratio of 2.3:1 required. The signal is triggered on breaking the short-term resistance of 6947.25 pts. TP1: 7002.28 pts (partial securing). TP2: 7150 pts (final target at 3 months). Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).
Invalidation Catalysts: - Closing below 6700 pts. - VIX goes back above 25. - Announcement of an unexpected rate hike by the Fed.