FLOW SUMMARY

The term structure of WTI futures shows a pronounced backwardation (+65.6% between the M1 and M3 contracts), which indicates a significant tension on physical supply and a BULLISH support for short-term prices. The Dollar Index (DXY) remains at 98.86, a relatively low level that tends to favor commodities by making them more affordable for holders of other currencies. The average volume over the last 5 days is 16% lower than the monthly average, with a negative performance of -12.23% over the same period. This suggests that the recent price decline occurred on normal volume, without strong confirmation of selling capitulation, but rather profit-taking. The volume of the day is very low (6% of the monthly average), indicating a consolidation phase. The aggregate flow bias is MIXED in the short term due to the recent price volatility and moderate volume, but with a strong structural POSITIVE component due to the backwardation and the weakness of the DXY.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

WTI is currently trading at $97.89, just below its 20-day moving average (SMA20) at $98.78. The RSI(14) is NEUTRAL at 49.68. The underlying trend remains BULLISH, with the price well above the SMA200 ($66.83). The dynamics of the last three days have been marked by strong volatility: a drop of -13.18% on April 8 with high volume, followed by a rebound of +1.13% on April 9, also on high volume, signaling a battle between buyers and sellers. The current session shows a slight decrease of -0.35% on very low volume (6% of the monthly average), indicating a consolidation phase after these abrupt movements. The key levels to watch are resistance at $119.48 (1-month and 6-month resistance) and supports at $64.85 (1-month support) and $54.98 (6-month support). The underperformance over 5 days (-12.9% vs GSG -6.1%) contrasts with a notable outperformance over 20 days (+17.3% vs GSG +6.8%) and 3 months (+64.5% vs GSG +31.9%), suggesting an underlying structural strength despite the recent correction.

SCENARIOS & MACROECONOMIC CATALYSTS

The overall market regime is BULLISH (S&P 500 > MA50 > MA200), providing a favorable context for risk. The VIX at 19.49 confirms a RISK-ON environment. The geopolitical risk, although high overall, is a positive catalyst for oil (RAS adjusted to 44/100 for CL=F, with an Energy risk at 90/100).

  • BULLISH Scenario (Probability 40%): WTI could resume its BULLISH trend if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify or if supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. The strong backwardation and the weakness of the DXY would continue to support prices. A daily close above $99.00 would validate this scenario, targeting $105.00 then $119.00.
    • Catalysts: Escalation of tensions in the Middle East, maintenance of backwardation, increase in global demand, persistent weakness of the DXY.
  • BASE Scenario (Probability 35%): WTI consolidates around current levels ($95-100) after the recent volatility. The market digests the conflicting information between fears of escalation and hopes of a ceasefire. The current low volume suggests this waiting phase.
    • Catalysts: Relative stability of geopolitical tensions, maintenance of current production levels, mixed macroeconomic data.
  • BEARISH Scenario (Probability 25%): A significant de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East, an unexpected increase in supply (OPEC+ or US), or a more marked global economic slowdown could lead to a deeper correction. A daily close below $93.50 would be a strong signal of weakness.
    • Catalysts: Resolution of conflicts in the Middle East, increase in oil supply, strengthening of the DXY, deterioration of global growth prospects.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULLISH regime (S&P 500 > MA50 > MA200), this BULLISH signal on CL=F is based on persistent supply tensions and a macro environment favorable to commodities. The macro risk remains LOW for oil (RAS adjusted to 44/100) with a very high Energy risk (90/100) acting as a positive catalyst — R/R ratio of 3.63:1 required. The signal is triggered on a daily close above $99.00 confirming the recovery above the SMA20. The targets are a TP1 at $105.00 for partial securing and a TP2 at $119.00 as a final 3-month target. The stop-loss is set at $93.50. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).