FLOW SUMMARY

The sentiment on equities is currently unavailable, making the interpretation of flows more difficult. However, given the current macroeconomic context, we can deduce the following:

  • VIX: At 19.34, the VIX indicates a still present appetite for risk, but slightly higher than in recent weeks. This suggests potential market complacency, but also increased sensitivity to external events.
  • DXY: The Dollar Index is weak at 98.67, which is generally favorable for emerging markets and commodities. However, in a context of high geopolitical risk, this effect may be attenuated.
  • T10Y: 10-year rates are at 4.32%, which indicates a normalization of rates. Monitoring the credit spread is essential to assess the health of the financial system.

Given these elements, the overall bias of the flows seems MIXED. The appetite for risk is still present, but geopolitical tensions and energy-related risks could weigh on the markets.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

The Nasdaq Composite index is currently at 22902.89 points. Here is an analysis of its technical structure:

  • Underlying trend: The index is moving above its 20 (21966.23) and 200-day (22411.13) moving averages, which indicates an underlying BULLISH trend.
  • Short term: The dynamics of the last three days show a consolidation with a low intraday variation on the last day (-0.05%). The volume of the day is at 84% of its monthly average, which does not signal any particular pressure.
  • Key levels:
    • Major support (6 months): 20690.25 points
    • Major resistance (6 months): 24019.99 points
    • Short-term resistance (1 month): 23011.77 points
  • Indicators: The RSI(14) is at 66.11, which indicates that the index is not in overbought territory.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

Given the current context, here are three possible scenarios for the Nasdaq Composite index:

  • BULLISH scenario (30%): The index manages to break through the resistance of 23011.77 points and continues its progression towards the major resistance at 24019.99 points. Catalysts: de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, stabilization of energy prices, publication of technological company results above expectations.
  • Base scenario (40%): The index consolidates around its current level, oscillating between 22600 and 23000 points. Catalysts: maintenance of the geopolitical status quo, contained energy volatility, absence of major macroeconomic news.
  • BEARISH scenario (30%): The index breaks the support of 22600 points and corrects towards the major support at 20690.25 points. Catalysts: escalation of geopolitical tensions, surge in energy prices, deterioration of economic prospects.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime (SPY > MA50 > MA200), this NEUTRAL signal on ^IXIC reflects the uncertainty related to geopolitical tensions and energy volatility. Macro risk remains high - a R/R ratio of 2:1 is required.

The signal is triggered on a confirmed break of the resistance at 23011.77 points.

  • TP1: 23500 points
  • TP2: 24019.99 points
  • Stop: 22400 points
  • Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x)

Invalidation catalysts:

  • Major escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
  • Surge in oil prices above $110 a barrel.
  • Publication of higher-than-expected inflation data, leading to more aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed.