FLOW SUMMARY

Flow analysis on WTI crude oil reveals a mixed picture. The "backwardation" structure of the futures curve remains pronounced, signaling persistent tension on physical supply and a structurally BULLISH bias. However, this tension is counterbalanced by a distinctly BEARISH short-term price dynamic, accompanied by declining volumes in recent sessions. This divergence between a solid underlying structure and recent selling pressure suggests a phase of market indecision. The aggregation of these signals results in a MIXED flow bias, indicating likely short-term consolidation.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

After reaching highs near $102, WTI underwent a violent correction of more than 10% in two days, bringing it back to the current level of $91.02. The price thus broke its 20-day moving average ($98.36), which now acts as the first resistance. However, the underlying trend remains BULLISH, with the price moving well above its 200-day moving average ($67.25). The RSI(14) momentum indicator is at 50.56, in full NEUTRAL territory, confirming the absence of a clear direction at this stage. Immediate support is on the recent low around $89-91, before the key zone of $73.28.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

Base Scenario (Neutral) - 45%: The market enters a consolidation phase, oscillating in a range between $89 and $99. Uncertainty regarding talks between the United States and Iran and persistent geopolitical risks keep operators in a wait-and-see mode. Backwardation prevents a deeper fall, while hopes for détente limit the BULLISH potential.

BULLISH Scenario - 30%: A failure of USA-Iran negotiations or a new escalation in the Middle East revives fears about supply. The price breaks the SMA20 resistance ($98.36) and heads towards the major resistance of $119.48.

BEARISH Scenario - 25%: A surprise agreement between the USA and Iran is announced, paving the way for a significant return of Iranian barrels to the market. Combined with signs of slowing global demand, the price breaks the $89 support and targets the $73.28 zone.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL market regime, the NEUTRAL signal on WTI oil reflects the acute conflict between a BULLISH underlying structure (backwardation, long-term trend) and short-term BEARISH catalysts (hopes for USA-Iran détente). Macro risk remains moderate but volatility is high. A directional strategy is premature; a consolidation phase is the preferred scenario. The signal triggers on a confirmed exit from the current range. For a BULLISH bias, entry would be on a daily close above the SMA20 ($98.36). The targets would then be $110.00 (TP1) and $119.48 (TP2). Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).