FLOW SUMMARY

The VIX is currently at 18.17, indicating an overall RISK-ON market regime, which is favorable for risky assets and major pairs against the Dollar. The DXY is holding at 98.00, a weak level that tends to support the valuation of the Euro against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD profile is mainly influenced by the monetary policy differential between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, as well as global risk flows. In this context of a weak DXY and a moderate VIX, the aggregate bias for the EUR/USD is clearly POSITIVE.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

The EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.18106, firmly maintaining above its key moving averages (SMA20 at 1.16129 and SMA200 at 1.16739), which confirms a well-established BULLISH trend on medium and long-term time horizons. The RSI(14) is at 70.45, signaling strong buying momentum. Although in overbought territory, this reflects the strength of the current momentum and does not necessarily indicate an imminent reversal, but rather a possible consolidation before a new impulse. Over the past three days, the pair has recorded modest but consistent gains, with a sequence of three consecutive days of gains, demonstrating intact buying flow. The monthly resistance at 1.18273 is the next major technical level to watch. A decisive break above this threshold would confirm the continuation of the trend towards the semi-annual resistance at 1.20236. Key support for the current trend is identified at 1.17500.

SCENARIOS & MACROECONOMIC CATALYSTS

  • BULLISH Scenario (65%): The EUR/USD breaks through the monthly resistance at 1.18273, supported by a DXY that continues to weaken and an overall RISK-ON market sentiment. Catalysts include an ECB policy perceived as more restrictive than the Fed, or European economic data surprising positively. Geopolitical risk, although high, is here a positive catalyst for the Euro as an alternative to the Dollar in certain situations, and moderate credit risk also supports sentiment. The weakness of the DXY at 98.00 and the VIX at 18.17 reinforce this scenario.
  • BASE Scenario (25%): The EUR/USD consolidates around current levels (1.1800-1.1820) without managing to sustainably break through the monthly resistance. The market awaits new macroeconomic data or clarifications on central bank policies. High monetary risk (78/100) and high energy risk (85/100) act as potential brakes on rapid progress, limiting buyers' enthusiasm.
  • BEARISH Scenario (10%): A reversal of market sentiment towards RISK-OFF, an unexpected rebound of the DXY above 99.00, or hawkish statements from the Fed coupled with disappointing European data. A daily close below the SMA20 (1.16129) would invalidate the current BULLISH structure, signaling significant profit-taking or a change of regime.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime (SPY > MA50 > MA200), this BULLISH signal on EURUSD=X is based on solid technical dynamics and a macroeconomic context favorable to dollar depreciation. Macro risk remains moderate - an R/R ratio of 2.54:1 is required. The signal is triggered on a daily close above 1.18273. The two objectives are: TP1 at 1.19150 for partial securing, TP2 at 1.20236 as the final objective. Recommended sizing: Standard position (1x).