FLOW SUMMARY
The WTI term structure remains in strong backwardation (+51.3% over 3 months), a powerful signal of tension on physical supply and structural support for prices. At the same time, the relative weakness of the Dollar Index (DXY at 98.63) is a favorable factor for commodities priced in USD. Volumes on the last sessions of decline are low (currently at 1% of the monthly average), which suggests a lack of conviction on the part of sellers and qualifies the current movement as consolidation rather than reversal. The aggregate bias of flows is therefore mixed to positive, with tension on physical supply dominating short-term technical weakness.
TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE
WTI is currently trading at $94.40, down from its 20-day moving average ($97.48), marking a pause after the recent surge. However, the price remains well above its 200-day moving average ($68.25), confirming a solid BULLISH underlying trend. The RSI (14) at 34.87 is approaching the oversold zone, which could limit the potential for short-term decline and prepare for a rebound. The key element is the lack of volume accompanying the decline of the last two sessions, which invalidates a scenario of aggressive distribution and reinforces the hypothesis of a market breathing phase.
SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS
BULLISH Scenario (65% probability): A further escalation of tensions in the Middle East or a proven disruption of the Strait of Hormuz acts as an immediate catalyst. The price crosses the SMA20 ($97.48) and heads towards the major resistance of $119.48. This scenario is supported by the overall BULL market regime and backwardation.
Base Scenario (25% probability): The geopolitical status quo persists without major escalation. The market digests the current risk premium and the price oscillates in a range between the monthly support at $80.56 and the SMA20 resistance at $97.48.
BEARISH Scenario (10% probability): A surprise and credible de-escalation in the Middle East, coupled with signs of demand destruction, leads to a liquidation of long positions. The price breaks the support of $80.56, invalidating the medium-term BULLISH structure.
AEGIS VERDICT
In a BULL market regime (SPY > MA50) and a context of high geopolitical risk on energy, this BULLISH signal on WTI is based on the thesis of a lasting risk premium and structural tension in supply. The current consolidation is seen as an opportunity. This signal confirms the BULLISH position initiated on 04/24. The signal is triggered upon confirmation of support in the $94.00 zone with a positive daily close. The first target (TP1) is set at $105.00 for partial securing, with a final target (TP2) at $119.48. The protection stop is placed below the monthly support at $80.56. Recommended sizing: Standard position (1x).