FLOW SUMMARY

Flow dynamics on WTI are clearly positive, driven by fundamental and geopolitical factors. The term structure of the market is in strong backwardation (+69.2% over 3 months), a powerful technical signal indicating extreme tension on immediate physical supply and encouraging destocking. This phenomenon is a BULLISH structural support. At the same time, the Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at a low level (98.39), which makes dollar-denominated commodities, such as oil, more attractive. The only downside is a moderate volume for the moment (24% of the monthly average), suggesting that confirmation of the breakout by massive institutional participation is still awaited. The aggregate flow bias is POSITIVE.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

After two BEARISH consolidation sessions, WTI executes an explosive intraday reversal of +7.26%, going from $99.73 to $106.97. This movement strongly broke through the 20-day moving average ($97.21), which was acting as dynamic resistance. The RSI at 65.64 indicates strong BULLISH momentum but not yet in overbought territory, leaving potential for further upside. The next major resistance is at $119.48. Validation of this BULLISH impulse will require a daily close above the psychological threshold of $105 with a significant increase in volumes.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

  • BULLISH Scenario (65% probability): The escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz materializes with the US naval escort operation. The geopolitical risk premium continues to inflate, propelling WTI towards the $119.50 resistance. The fragmentation of OPEC+ following the departure of the UAE exacerbates supply volatility.

  • Base Scenario (25% probability): The market digests the news and enters a consolidation phase. Prices fluctuate in a range between $100 and $110 while awaiting concrete developments in Hormuz. Diplomatic statements temporarily appease the market without resolving the underlying crisis.

  • BEARISH Scenario (10% probability): A surprise de-escalation occurs (cancellation of the US operation, diplomatic agreement). The risk premium evaporates rapidly, leading to a sharp correction of WTI towards the $80.56 support.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL market regime (SPY > MA50) and a context of critical energy geopolitical risk, this BULLISH signal on WTI is a confirmation of the increasing risk premium. The impulsive movement of the day, triggered by the escalation in Hormuz, reinforces the BULLISH thesis initiated previously. The signal is triggered on a confirmed daily close above $105. The first target is set at $117.63 for a partial profit taking, with a final target at $119.50. The protection stop is placed below the 20-day moving average, at $96.50. Recommended sizing: Standard position (1x).