FLOW SUMMARY

Flows on Fastly present a mixed picture. On the one hand, the Put/Call Ratio at 0.76 indicates an offensive sentiment in the options market, with a predominance of calls suggesting a speculative appetite for a rebound. On the other hand, spot volumes tell a story of institutional distribution, with a capitulation session yesterday at over 47 million shares. Dark pool flows remain moderate (approximately 1.9 million shares for the week), indicating an institutional presence without massive and hidden accumulation or distribution at this stage. The aggregation of these contradictory signals—optimism on derivatives versus massive selling pressure on cash—results in a MIXED flow bias.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

Fastly's technical structure has been violently degraded. The stock opened yesterday with a massive BEARISH gap, plunging from $31.50 to a low of $19.50 in a single session, on exceptional volumes (47M shares). This 'sell the news' type of move shattered the 20-day moving average (SMA20), now resistance at $25.27. The price is currently attempting to stabilize just above the key monthly support at $18.53. The RSI at 42.10 is not yet in oversold territory, suggesting that BEARISH pressure may not be completely exhausted. The day's volume, at 121% of the average, confirms that the stock remains under active surveillance.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

Base Scenario (Neutral) - 55% probability: The stock enters a phase of consolidation and digestion of the fall. The price oscillates in a range delimited by the support at $18.53 and the resistance of the SMA20 at $25.27. The conflict between the technical degradation and a generally supportive global macro environment (BULL regime) neutralizes directional forces in the short term.

BULL Scenario - 25% probability: The Raymond James upgrade, coupled with the 'risk-on' sentiment (VIX at 17), attracts buyers looking for an attractive entry point. The support at $18.53 holds firmly, and an attempt to partially fill the gap is initiated with the analyst consensus at $22.75 as the first target.

BEARISH Scenario - 20% probability: The post-earnings selling pressure is not over. The support at $18.53 is broken at the close, triggering a new wave of sales. The next major support zone is then much lower, towards the SMA200 at $13.57.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL market regime but with HIGH geopolitical risk (RAS 73), the signal on FSLY is NEUTRAL. The asset is caught between a violently BEARISH technical dynamic following a post-earnings capitulation and a underlying macro environment that remains favorable to risk. Caution is advised until a price base is clearly established. The signal triggers on a confirmed stabilization between the support at $18.53 and the resistance at $25.27 (SMA20). The first target of a potential rebound would be $22.75, with a final target at $25.27. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).