FLOW SUMMARY

Flows on WTI show a clearly positive bias, supported by structural and cyclical factors. The structure of the futures curve is in strong backwardation (+55.9% over 3 months), signaling palpable tension on immediate physical supply and incentivizing storage. This phenomenon is amplified by the persistent weakness of the Dollar Index (DXY at 98.03), which makes dollar-denominated commodities more attractive. Although volumes in the current session are still low, the violence of the price movement suggests a strong reaction to the geopolitical news. The aggregation of these signals confers a POSITIVE bias to market flows.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

WTI recorded a strong bullish impulse of +4.49%, propelling prices to $99.70. This movement strongly broke through the 20-day moving average (SMA20) located at $96.50, which now becomes an immediate support. The RSI (14) at 58.69 indicates healthy BULLISH momentum, with room for further progress before reaching overbought levels. The next major resistance zone is around $117.63 (1-month resistance) then $119.48 (6-month resistance). Confirmation of the current breakout on a daily close would be a powerful technical signal.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

BULLISH Scenario (70% probability): The failure of talks between the United States and Iran leads to an escalation of tensions, with an increased risk of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The market continues to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium. Target: $119.48.

Base Scenario (20% probability): Geopolitical tensions persist but without further material escalation. The price consolidates in a range between $95 and $105, digesting the recent rally while awaiting new catalysts. The market remains supported by backwardation.

BEARISH Scenario (10% probability): An unexpected resumption of diplomatic dialogue or tangible signs of a global economic slowdown weigh on demand. The price fails to hold above the SMA20 and returns to test the $80.56 support.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL market regime (SPY > MA50) and a context of high geopolitical risk that supports energy prices, this BULLISH signal on WTI is a confirmation of the previous thesis, catalyzed by current events. Macro risk remains high but is positively correlated with the price of oil, justifying an R/R ratio of 3.78:1. The signal is triggered on a confirmed daily close above the $98.50 zone. The first target (TP1) is set at $110.00 for partial securing, with a final target (TP2) at $119.40. The protection stop is placed at $94.50, below the SMA20. Recommended sizing: Full position (1.5x).