FLOW SUMMARY

The sentiment in the options market is predominantly speculative, with a Put/Call Ratio of 0.68 indicating a prevalence of calls. This reading is complemented by a moderate institutional presence observed in dark pools, with 1.43 million shares traded during the week. However, these upstream flows contrast sharply with the selling pressure observed today in reaction to the earnings release. The trading volume reaches 161% of its average, signaling active distribution. The aggregate flow bias is therefore MIXED, torn between an offensive optional positioning and a clearly negative price and volume dynamic.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

The market's reaction to Monday.com's excellent quarterly results constitutes a classic "Sell the News" setup. The stock opened with a gap down and is currently down -5.6% on very significant volume, which confirms the selling pressure. Technically, although the price is currently holding above its 20-day moving average ($68.83), it remains structurally in a long-term BEARISH trend, trading far below its 200-day average ($142.38). The critical support zone to watch is at $57.50, while the first notable resistance is at $78.68.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

  • Base Case (Neutral - 60%): The stock enters a phase of consolidation and news digestion. The price oscillates in a range defined by the SMA20 support at $68.83 and the resistance at $78.68. This scenario assumes that the initial selling pressure fades without giving way to a new wave of immediate buying.

  • BEARISH Scenario (25%): The "Sell the News" dynamic intensifies. The SMA20 support is broken, opening the way for a test of the major support of the last 6 months at $57.50. This scenario would be catalyzed by a deterioration in overall market sentiment (VIX > 25) or by cautious comments from management during the conference call.

  • BULLISH Scenario (15%): The initial drop turns out to be a shakeout to absorb profit-taking. Institutional buyers take advantage of the discount to position themselves. The stock quickly regains ground, breaks through the $78.68 resistance and fills its gap down. This scenario would require strong support from the general market and a positive reassessment of the outlook by analysts.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL market regime but with HIGH geopolitical risk (RAS 71/100), the signal on MNDY is NEUTRAL due to the violent "Sell the News" reaction despite solid results. The conflict between positive fundamentals and volumetric selling pressure suggests a consolidation phase before a clear direction emerges. The medium-term upside potential remains intact in view of analyst targets, but short-term risk dominates. The signal triggers on price stabilization above the SMA20 ($68.83) on a daily closing basis for 2 consecutive sessions. The main target is a return to the resistance at $78.68, with a more ambitious target at $122.64 aligned with the consensus. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).