FLOW SUMMARY

The WTI market structure remains a major supporting factor. The futures curve indicates a probable backwardation situation (+54.1% vs 3M), a strong technical signal of tension on physical supply and structural BULLISH support. At the same time, the relative weakness of the Dollar Index (DXY at 98.05) is a tailwind for commodities denominated in USD. The volume of the last sessions, although moderate, is part of a consolidation context above key technical supports, suggesting a pause rather than an established selling pressure. The aggregate flow bias therefore remains POSITIVE, in line with the existing BULLISH thesis.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

The WTI price, currently at $98.58, is stabilizing after a slight decline, firmly maintaining its position above the 20-day moving average (SMA20) located at $96.44. This level constitutes the first dynamic support. The 200-day moving average (SMA200), much lower at $69.95, confirms a solidly BULLISH underlying trend. The RSI at 57.60 indicates no overbought condition, leaving upside potential intact. The next psychological and technical resistance is at $100, the crossing of which would open the way to major resistances at $117.63 and $119.48.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

  • BULLISH Scenario (65%): The confirmed crossing of $100 acts as a psychological trigger. Persistent geopolitical tensions (Iran, UAE withdrawal from OPEC) and strong backwardation continue to support prices. The proposal to suspend the gasoline tax in the United States could stimulate demand. Targets: $108.00 then $117.63.
  • NEUTRAL Scenario (25%): The market struggles to sustainably break through $100 and enters a consolidation phase between $96.44 (SMA20) and $100. This scenario would prevail in the absence of major new geopolitical catalysts, with the market digesting current information.
  • BEARISH Scenario (10%): An unexpected relaxation in US-Iran negotiations or a publication of massively surplus weekly inventories causes a break of the SMA20 support. A generalized risk aversion (VIX peak) could also lead to liquidations. Target: return to support at $80.56.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL market regime and a geopolitical risk context favorable to energy prices (low adjusted RAS), the BULLISH signal on WTI is confirmed and reinforced. The confluence of technical signals, market structure and macroeconomic context supports the continuation of the trend. The signal is triggered on a confirmed daily close above the psychological threshold of $100. Target 1 (TP1) is set at $108.00 for a partial profit taking, with a final target (TP2) at $117.63. The protection stop is placed below the 20-day moving average, at $95.50. Recommended sizing: Standard position (1x).