FLOW SUMMARY

Flows on WTI oil signal increasing tension. The most decisive factor is the term structure, which remains in strong backwardation (+57.1% over 3 months), indicating a deficit in immediate physical supply and a premium for prompt delivery. This structural configuration offers fundamental support to prices. In parallel, the rise in the Dollar Index (DXY at 98.31) usually exerts opposing pressure, but it is currently overshadowed by geopolitical risks. Recent volumes are slightly down (-10% compared to the 30-day average), which suggests that the recent price surge occurred without overwhelming volumetric conviction, a point of vigilance. The aggregate flow bias is therefore mixed, but with very strong BULLISH structural support from backwardation.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

Technically, WTI has crossed an important psychological and technical threshold by settling above $100. The price is now comfortably trading above its 20-day (96.93$) and 200-day (70.13$) moving averages, confirming a BULLISH dynamic on short and long-term horizons. The RSI at 59.64 indicates positive momentum without being in overbought territory, leaving potential for further upside. The major medium-term resistance zone is at 119.48$, while the first key support is on the SMA20 around 96.93$. The low volumetric participation in the last session calls for confirmation to validate the sustainability of the breakout.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

  • BULLISH Scenario (70%): A continuation or intensification of tensions in the Middle East (strikes in Lebanon, situation in Iran) keeps the risk premium high. Backwardation increases, reflecting fears about the security of supplies. WTI consolidates its position above $100 and targets the next major resistance towards 117-119$.

  • NEUTRAL Scenario (20%): The conflict remains contained within its current perimeter. The market digests the risk premium and the price enters a consolidation phase, oscillating in a range between the SMA20 support (around 97$) and the psychological resistance of 105$.

  • BEARISH Scenario (10%): An unexpected de-escalation in the Middle East (ceasefire, diplomatic agreement) or an external macroeconomic shock (fear of recession, credit crisis) triggers a liquidation of long positions. The price breaks the SMA20 support and returns to test the 80-85$ zone.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL market regime and a context of high geopolitical risk that benefits oil, this BULLISH continuation signal on WTI is reinforced by the military escalation in Lebanon. The technical configuration and the term structure in backwardation validate the thesis of a continuation of the trend. The signal is triggered on a confirmed daily close above the psychological threshold of 100$. The first target (TP1) is set at 110.00$ for partial securing, with a final target (TP2) at 119.00$. The protection stop is placed at 95.40$, below the SMA20. Recommended sizing: Standard position (1x).