FLOW SUMMARY

The FX market is currently influenced by a reassessment of global monetary policy expectations, following the release of Australian inflation data below forecasts. The VIX, at 18.21, indicates a generally neutral to slightly favorable risk regime, although a slight 5-day uptick suggests underlying volatility. The DXY is slightly down intraday at 101.42, but the US dollar retains structural strength, as evidenced by 10-year US Treasury yields at 4.60% and recent news mentioning the dollar at multi-week highs. This rate differential, which remains favorable to the US dollar, exerts downward pressure on EUR/USD. The overall risk flow positioning is therefore MIXED, with dollar resilience amidst macroeconomic uncertainties. It is important to note that the previous BULLISH thesis on EUR/USD, initiated on 07/14/2026 at 1.1400, is now invalidated. This reversal is explained by the persistence of dollar strength and the reassessment of global monetary policies, which now favor the USD on a relative basis, as well as the technical break below the SMA20.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

EUR/USD is currently trading at 1.13934, below its 20-period moving average (SMA20) located at 1.13254, signaling short-term technical weakness. The RSI(14) at 45.57 confirms the absence of significant bullish momentum. The pair remains well below its SMA200 (1.16316), validating a long-term BEARISH trend. Key 6-month and 1-month support is identified at 1.13254, a crucial level to watch for a potential break. Immediate 1-month resistance is at 1.15300, while 6-month resistance is further out at 1.19285. The pair is only 10% away from its 52-week annual low, indicating a structurally weak position. The movements over the last three days have been contained, with minimal intraday variations, suggesting a consolidation phase before a potential directional move.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

On the main horizon (medium term, 6-60 days):

BEARISH Scenario (45% probability): The favorable rate differential for the dollar and the reassessment of global monetary policies post-Australian inflation are weighing on EUR/USD, leading to a break of key support. The pair could head towards 1.12500. * Catalysts: Acceleration of Fed monetary tightening; Deterioration of global risk sentiment (VIX > 20); US CPI/PPI inflation figures above expectations.

NEUTRAL Scenario (35% probability): EUR/USD consolidates around 1.1400, as markets digest the implications of divergent macroeconomic data and uncertainty over central bank decisions. The pair would remain in a range between 1.13254 and 1.15300. * Catalysts: Mixed US and Eurozone macroeconomic data; Absence of major catalysts on rates or risk sentiment; DXY maintaining a narrow range.

BULLISH Scenario (20% probability): A dollar weakening linked to Fed pivot expectations or an improvement in European economic sentiment would allow EUR/USD to rebound towards its resistances. The pair could target 1.15300. * Catalysts: Dovish Fed commentary; Significant improvement in Eurozone economic indicators; Marked weakening of the DXY below 101.00.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a CORRECTION regime (SPY below MA50), this BEARISH signal on EUR/USD=X is based on the reassessment of rate differentials and technical pressure below the SMA20. Macro risk remains MODERATE, but HIGH geopolitical and energy tensions act as catalysts for the dollar, reinforcing the BEARISH bias for EUR/USD. An R/R ratio of 2.6:1 is required. The signal triggers on a daily close below 1.1380. The first target (TP1) is set at 1.13254 for partial profit-taking, with a final target (TP2) at 1.12500. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).