FLOW SUMMARY

The natural gas market presents a mixed picture. The term structure is slightly in contango (-1.9% vs 3M), which, while moderate, indicates a slight structural headwind for rolling yield on long positions. However, a weak DXY at 99.00 is a favorable macroeconomic factor for commodities, providing a tailwind. On a volumetric basis, the 5-day average volume is 13% above the 30-day average, accompanying a 5-day performance of +5.54%. This suggests growing interest and bullish technical momentum, albeit without strong volumetric confirmation of the trend. The long position opened on 08/10/2026 at $2.7980 is currently showing a slight loss (-3.90% at D+5), but current short-term momentum could offer an opportunity for a tactical reinforcement or new entry. In summary, aggregated signals are MIXED, with a tactical short-term bullish bias counteracted by longer-term bearish supply fundamentals.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

Natural gas is currently trading at $2.84. The asset is above its 20-day moving average (SMA20) at $2.74, signaling short-term bullish momentum. However, it remains below its 200-day moving average (SMA200) at $3.38, indicating a bearish underlying trend. The RSI(14) at 61.07 is in neutral/bullish territory, without excessive overbought conditions. Key levels to watch are support at $2.62 (1-month) and resistance at $2.99 (1-month). Support at $2.48 (6-month) and resistance at $3.49 (6-month) define the broader boundaries. Today's volume, at 22% of its monthly average, is still low to confirm the strength of the intraday move, but the 5-day performance (+5.5%) indicates recent buying pressure.

SCENARIOS & MACROECONOMIC CATALYSTS

On the primary horizon (short-term, 1-15 days):

BULLISH Scenario (60% probability): Natural gas continues its technical rebound initiated by recent buying momentum, supported by a weak DXY that favors commodities and high overall energy risk. Resistance at $2.99 is targeted before supply fundamentals weigh in. Catalysts: 1) Continuation of bullish technical momentum. 2) Sustained weak DXY. 3) Escalation of geopolitical tensions affecting energy supply.

NEUTRAL Scenario (20% probability): The price consolidates around current levels, with technical bullish forces neutralized by anticipation of increased supply following the Iranian discovery and the slightly contango term structure. Catalysts: 1) Stabilization of news flow. 2) Low trading volumes. 3) Absence of clear directional catalysts.

BEARISH Scenario (20% probability): Bullish momentum quickly fades, and concerns about future supply increases due to Iranian reserves, combined with an unfavorable term structure, lead to a correction towards key support levels. Catalysts: 1) Rapid profit-taking. 2) Confirmation of the impact of the Iranian discovery. 3) Unexpected strengthening of the DXY.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime (SPY > MA50 > MA200), this BULLISH signal on NG=F is based on short-term technical momentum and a macro backdrop favorable to commodities. Macro risk remains MODERATE (RAS 46/100) - R/R ratio of 3.16:1 required. The signal triggers on a hold above $2.80, offering an opportunity to reinforce the existing long position or a new tactical entry. Targets are set at $2.99 (TP1) for partial securing and $2.99 (TP2) as the final target. The stop-loss is positioned at $2.74 to manage risk. Recommended sizing: standard (1x).