1. FUNDAMENTAL ASSESSMENTThe Nasdaq 100 is operating under a CORRECTIONary regime, distinct from the S&P 500 and CAC 40 which maintain a confirmed BULLISH trend. The macroeconomic context remains characterized by a MODERATE-HIGH risk profile (overall score of 50/100, with geopolitical headwinds at 72/100 and energy-related at 68/100). Tensions between the United States and Iran, alongside political uncertainties in Europe, contribute to this cautious stance. Oil volatility (OVX at 47.6) and inflationary concerns (rising TIPS/IEF spread) weigh on general sentiment. However, the VIX at 17.49 indicates an overall "risk-on" market regime, and credit stability (HYG at 79.76) tempers systemic risks. US 10-year Treasury yields (T10Y at 4.57%) remain elevated, exerting continuous pressure on the valuation multiples of technology assets. The DXY is stable, not adding significant additional pressure. In summary, the aggregated macro signal bias is MIXED, with persistent structural risks but an absence of widespread panic.### 2. TECHNICAL DYNAMICSThe Nasdaq 100 shows a slight intraday decline of -0.54% at 25818.69 pts, following a previous session's gain of +0.47%. The index remains below its SMA20 (25890.46 pts), which now acts as immediate resistance. The RSI(14) at 39.86 indicates NEUTRAL momentum, leaning towards an oversold zone without a pronounced oversold signal. Today's volume is at 73% of its monthly average, suggesting low conviction behind the current movement and an absence of massive institutional selling pressure. The SMA200 at 23739.32 pts remains a major structural support, well below current levels. In terms of relative strength, the Nasdaq 100 outperforms QQQ over 5 days (+2.2 pts) but underperforms over 3 months (-3.1 pts), signaling short-term resilience within a more structural relative weakness. The key resistance to monitor is at 27190.21 pts (6M resistance), while immediate support is located at 24980.38 pts (1M support).### 3. SCENARIOS & MACROECONOMIC CATALYSTSOver the primary horizon (medium-term, 20-60 days):Base Case Scenario (BEARISH - 55%): The Nasdaq 100 could continue its correction towards the 24500 pts support, driven by sustained selling pressure on the semiconductor sector and persistent macroeconomic risks. Elevated interest rates will continue to weigh on technology company valuations, while geopolitical tensions could curb risk appetite. Catalysts: Escalation of US-Iran tensions, hawkish Fed minutes, deteriorating global growth outlook, disappointing technology company earnings.NEUTRAL Scenario (30%): The index consolidates within a range between 24980 and 26500 pts, without a clear direction. Buying and selling forces are balanced in the absence of major catalysts capable of breaking the current momentum. Catalysts: Interest rate stability, absence of significant geopolitical news, low trading volumes, mixed macroeconomic data releases.BULLISH Scenario (15%): A technical rebound could bring the index back towards the 27190 pts resistance, should macroeconomic risks subside and market sentiment improve. Catalysts: De-escalation of geopolitical tensions, signals of monetary easing from central banks, better-than-expected technology company earnings, improved consumer sentiment.### 4. AEGIS VERDICTIn a CORRECTIONary regime (Nasdaq 100 below MA50), this BEARISH signal on the Nasdaq 100 is predicated on sector-specific pressure and persistent macro risks. Macro risk remains MODERATE-HIGH – a R/R ratio of 4.33:1 is required. The signal triggers upon a confirmed break below 25800 pts. The first target (TP1) is set at 24980.38 pts for partial de-risking, and the final target (TP2) at 24500 pts. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x), considering the high-risk environment and the historically low success rate of BEARISH signals on this asset. Invalidation conditions include a weekly close above 26100 pts or a major geopolitical de-escalation.