FLOW SUMMARY

Sentiment on Nvidia is currently mixed, driven by conflicting forces. The Put/Call Ratio of 0.62 for the July 15, 2026 expiration indicates a dominance of call options, reflecting speculative appetite and an offensive market sentiment. Concurrently, Dark Pool (FINRA ATS) flows for the past week recorded significant volume of 18,146,959 shares for a notional value of $8.49 billion. This high institutional activity suggests significant positioning movements, potentially accumulations or distributions, which are not always visible in traditional stock markets. Although options sentiment is BULLISH, the negative intraday price reaction despite positive news (billion-dollar AI deal) suggests that these OTC flows might also reflect institutional profit-taking. In summary, the aggregated signals present a MIXED bias: speculative optimism on options versus ambivalent institutional activity and a price reflecting short-term caution.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

Nvidia is currently trading at $203.53, down -2.40% intraday. This correction follows a strongly BULLISH previous session (+4.44% on July 10) with a high volume of 148 million shares. Today's volume, at 83% of its monthly average, is moderate, tempering the idea of massive capitulation but confirming an absence of strong buyer support against selling pressure. The RSI(14) at 45.36 indicates NEUTRAL momentum, with no overbought or oversold conditions. The price is slightly above its SMA(20) at $201.88, but remains well above the SMA(200) at $191.60, signaling an underlying BULLISH trend. Key levels to watch include the short-term support at $189.80 (1M support) and resistance at $232.01 (1M resistance). Major medium-term resistance is at $236.26 (6M resistance). The intraday decline, despite the positive news of a billion-dollar AI deal, can be interpreted as a 'Sell the News' phenomenon, where investors take profits after an already anticipated announcement or in a context of demanding valuation.

SCENARIOS & MACROECONOMIC CATALYSTS

On the main horizon (medium term, 20-60 business days):

BULLISH Scenario (Probability: 40%): Nvidia could rebound and target the $236.26 resistance if structural demand for AI continues to materialize, as evidenced by the billion-dollar deal with Nebius. A confirmed daily close above the SMA20 ($201.88) would validate a return of buying momentum. Catalysts include sustained demand for AI chips, validation of analyst consensus (average target at $301.62), and favorable institutional positioning via OTC flows. Invalidation of this scenario would occur in case of a break below the SMA200 ($191.60), a significant deterioration of the macroeconomic context (VIX > 25), or a downward revision of analyst consensus.

BASE Scenario (Probability: 35%): The stock could consolidate around current levels, between the 1M support ($189.80) and 1M resistance ($232.01), in the absence of major new catalysts or stabilization of the macro context. Profit-taking after positive announcements and caution in a high global risk environment would keep the stock within a range. Catalysts include anticipation of the next quarterly results, persistent macroeconomic volatility, and an absence of clear directional flows. Invalidation of this scenario would occur in case of a clear break of one of the key range levels ($189.80 or $232.01).

BEARISH Scenario (Probability: 25%): Nvidia could correct towards the $164.08 support (6M support) if the macroeconomic context further deteriorates, if inflationary fears intensify, or if massive profit-taking materializes. A break below the SMA200 ($191.60) would be a strong technical signal of weakness. Catalysts include an escalation of geopolitical tensions (Middle East), increased pressure on valuation multiples due to rising rates (T10Y at 4.61%), and unfavorable sector rotation for growth stocks. Invalidation of this scenario would occur in case of a significant rebound above the 1M resistance ($232.01) with high volumes.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime for the S&P 500 but with high macro-structural risk (geopolitical, energy, monetary) and the Nasdaq 100 in CORRECTION, this BULLISH signal on Nvidia is based on structural AI demand and analyst consensus. Volatility risk remains moderate with a VIX at 17.52. The signal triggers on a daily close above $202.00. The first target (TP1) is set at $220.00, allowing for partial profit securing. The final target (TP2) is $236.00. The stop-loss is positioned at $189.00. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x), due to the critical macro risk context (RAS 79) which tempers confidence despite solid fundamentals and consistency with the previous open position.