FLOW SUMMARY

Market sentiment on Nvidia is clearly bullish, as evidenced by the Put/Call Ratio at 0.55 for the July 24, 2026 expiry, indicating a clear dominance of call options and an aggressive speculative appetite. Concurrently, institutional activity is significant in the Over-The-Counter (OTC) market, with an OTC volume of 18,146,959 shares for a notional value of $8.49 billion over the past week. This high flow suggests notable institutional accumulation or distribution activity. In aggregate, flow signals indicate a POSITIVE and speculative bias for Nvidia, despite an overall more cautious macro-structural context.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

Nvidia shows a current price of $212.06, up 3.04% intraday, with a volume of 137,220,500 shares, representing 101% of its monthly average. This positive price momentum follows two days of consolidation. The stock is trading above its key moving averages (SMA20 at $202.29 and SMA200 at $192.50), confirming an underlying bullish trend. The RSI(14) at 62.72 indicates sustained buying momentum without being in extreme overbought territory yet. Immediate resistance is at $214.39 (1-month resistance), while key support is at $189.80 (1-month support). On a broader horizon, the 6-month resistance is at $236.26. The S&P 500 is in BULLish territory, which is favorable for risk, but the Nasdaq 100 is in a CORRECTION phase, introducing some caution. The VIX at 17.75 signals a RISK-ON market environment, while US 10-year rates (T10Y at 4.66%) remain elevated, exerting pressure on valuation multiples. In terms of relative strength, Nvidia is outperforming the XLK sector over 5 days (+0.7 pts) but underperforming over 3 months (-9.5 pts), suggesting sector rotation or longer-term profit-taking. The BULLISH position opened on 07/20/2026 at $202.81 is confirmed by this analysis, reinforcing conviction in the asset's potential. The stock, which was in a consolidation phase below $214 as mentioned in our previous analysis, shows renewed momentum today, potentially breaking through this threshold.

SCENARIOS & MACROECONOMIC CATALYSTS

On the primary horizon (medium term, 20-60 days):

BULLISH Scenario (Probability: 65%): Nvidia breaks through the $214.39 resistance and heads towards new highs. This scenario is fueled by optimistic BofA forecasts, which anticipate the server CPU market reaching $170 billion by 2030, reinforcing Nvidia's fundamental growth thesis. The opening of the first Wistron factory in the US, a key supplier, is also a positive catalyst for the supply chain. Bullish options sentiment and the S&P 500's BULLISH regime provide a favorable tailwind. The analyst consensus, with a mean target of $302.83, validates significant upside potential. Catalysts: Optimistic BofA forecasts for the server CPU market, strong revenue growth (+85.2%), bullish options sentiment (Put/Call 0.55), Wistron factory opening in the US. Invalidations: Weekly close below $198.00, S&P 500 regime deterioration towards BEARISH, announcement of additional export restrictions.

NEUTRAL Scenario (Probability: 20%): The stock consolidates around current levels, unable to sustainably break through the $214.39 resistance or maintain strong momentum. High macro-structural risks (RSI 72/100, particularly geopolitical and monetary) and 3-month relative underperformance against the XLK sector could dampen enthusiasm. Pressure on valuation multiples due to high rates (T10Y at 4.66%) could also limit expansion. Catalysts: Persistence of geopolitical tensions, lingering inflation fears, sector rotation out of semiconductors.

BEARISH Scenario (Probability: 15%): Nvidia falls back below its key moving averages and tests lower supports. This scenario would be triggered by an escalation of geopolitical tensions, an unexpected tightening of monetary policy, or negative news specific to the semiconductor sector (e.g., new export restrictions). Massive profit-taking after the intraday rally could also initiate a corrective move. Catalysts: Escalation of geopolitical conflicts, more aggressive than expected monetary tightening, deterioration of semiconductor market growth outlooks.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULLISH regime (S&P 500 > MA50 > MA200) but with the Nasdaq in CORRECTION and HIGH macro-structural risk (RSI 72/100), this BULLISH signal on Nvidia is based on solid fundamentals and aggressive options sentiment. Macro risk remains elevated, requiring a Risk/Reward ratio of 2.5:1. The signal triggers on a daily close above $214.39. The first target (TP1) is set at $225.00, with a final target (TP2) at $255.37. The stop-loss is positioned at $198.00. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x).