FLOW SUMMARYMarket sentiment on Nvidia is characterized by a BULLISH/speculative bias, as evidenced by the Put/Call Ratio of 0.53 (expiry 2026-07-08), indicating a clear dominance of call options. This dynamic is further reinforced by significant institutional activity in over-the-counter (Dark Pool FINRA) markets, with 18,146,959 shares traded for a notional value of $8.49 billion over the past week. This high OTC volume suggests discrete accumulation or distribution by institutional players. Combining these elements, the aggregated flow bias is POSITIVE, signaling sustained interest despite recent price fluctuations.### TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURENvidia has recently undergone a period of consolidation, with a -1.2% performance over the past 5 days and -6.1% over 20 days. The stock is currently stabilizing around its 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA200) at $191.23. The RSI(14) stands at 29.54, indicating an oversold condition that could precede a technical rebound. Current day volume is low, representing only 9% of its monthly average, which suggests an absence of intense selling pressure following the correction. Key technical levels to monitor include immediate support at $189.80 (1-month support) and the SMA20 resistance at $201.71. The 6-month structural support is at $164.27, while major 6-month resistance is at $236.54. The stock is currently at 45% of its 52-week range, far from its highs, which offers a residual upside potential of +22.8% to the 6M resistance.### SCENARIOS & CATALYSTSOn the primary horizon (medium-term, 20-60 days):BULLISH Scenario (65%): Nvidia rebounds from the SMA200, driven by the positive interpretation of the Trump decision as a potential 'marketing gift' and the maintenance of a highly favorable analyst consensus. The technical oversold condition (RSI 29.54) provides an attractive entry point. Nvidia's solid fundamentals of revenue and margin growth, along with its technological leadership in AI, continue to support the BULLISH thesis. The current BULL market regime on the S&P 500 is also a favorable factor. Catalysts: 1. Confirmation of the 'marketing gift' effect by the press or analysts. 2. Resumption of technical momentum with a break above the SMA20. 3. Maintenance of the BULL market regime on the S&P 500.NEUTRAL Scenario (20%): The stock consolidates around the SMA200, with investors evaluating the actual impact of the Trump decision against persistent macroeconomic risks (RAS HIGH). Institutional flows remain active but without clear direction. Catalysts: 1. Absence of new fundamental catalysts. 2. VIX fluctuation between 15 and 20. 3. Low trading volumes.BEARISH Scenario (15%): The SMA200 support breaks, leading to a deeper correction towards the 6M support at $164.27, exacerbated by a deterioration in overall macro sentiment or fears of production delays. Persistent geopolitical and energy tensions (RAS 72/100) could weigh on overall sentiment. Catalysts: 1. Break below $189.00 with volume. 2. Escalation of geopolitical tensions (RAS > 80). 3. Release of disappointing earnings or forecasts.### AEGIS VERDICTIn a BULL regime (S&P 500 above its moving averages), this BULLISH signal on NVDA is based on technical resilience around the SMA200 and the potentially positive impact of the Trump decision. Macro risk remains HIGH (RAS 72/100) – a R/R ratio of 3.01:1 is required. The signal triggers on a daily close above the SMA200 at $191.23. The two targets are: TP1 at $201.71 for partial securing, TP2 at $210.00 as the final target. Recommended sizing: standard (1x).