FLOW SUMMARY

The Put/Call Ratio (maturity 2026-08-28) stands at 0.48, indicating a clear dominance of call options over put options. This ratio, below 1, reflects an offensive speculative sentiment and a BULLISH bias from market participants. In parallel, Dark Pool volume (FINRA ATS) recorded 18,146,959 shares traded OTC last week, for a notional value of $8.49 billion. This high volume signals significant institutional activity, potentially accumulation, outside of public exchanges. In summary, the aggregated signals, particularly options sentiment and OTC flows, indicate a POSITIVE bias.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

Nvidia (NVDA) is currently trading at $226.84, up sharply by 8.19% following the release of its earnings. The stock is trading comfortably above its 20-day moving average (SMA20) at $217.15 and its 200-day moving average (SMA200) at $195.57, confirming a well-established BULLISH trend. The RSI(14) at 52.56 is NEUTRAL, leaving room for progression before reaching overbought levels. The key resistance to watch in the short term is the 1-month resistance at $227.92, with the 6-month resistance at $236.26 as the next target. Today's volume stands at 110% of its monthly average, demonstrating increased investor interest following the announcements. The key medium-term support is located at $190.01 (1-month support).

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

On the main horizon (medium term, 20-60 days):

BULLISH Scenario (60% probability): Nvidia continues its revaluation towards analyst consensus, supported by structural demand for AI chips and solid strategic execution. Catalysts include the ongoing AI enthusiasm, announcements of new products or strategic partnerships, and a gradual improvement in the overall macroeconomic environment. A confirmed breach of the 6-month resistance at $236.26 would validate this scenario.

BASE Scenario (30% probability): The stock consolidates around current levels, digesting the sharp post-earnings rally. The market awaits new major catalysts to justify significant progress. This scenario could be triggered by slight profit-taking or persistent macroeconomic uncertainty, keeping the stock within a range between $220 and $240.

BEARISH Scenario (10% probability): Disappointment regarding future AI prospects, a rapid deterioration of the macroeconomic environment (particularly geopolitical and energy tensions), or a break of key supports (SMA20 then 1-month support at $190.01) would invalidate the BULLISH thesis. A downward revision of growth forecasts or a loss of market share could also precipitate a correction.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime (S&P 500 > MA50 > MA200), this BULLISH signal on NVDA is based on the confirmation of AI growth prospects and strong post-earnings momentum. Macro risk remains HIGH due to geopolitical and energy tensions, which has tempered our confidence, but the R/R ratio of 2.31:1 is acceptable. The initial upward movement is already well underway (+16.3% over 20 days), which limits residual short-term potential and justifies a cautious approach. The signal is triggered by maintaining above the SMA20 ($217.15). Targets: TP1 at $250.00, TP2 (final target) at $280.00. Recommended sizing: standard (1x).