FLOW SUMMARY

The WTI crude oil market is currently under the predominant influence of geopolitical risks, following the announcement of the end of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. This escalation has generated a significant risk premium, propelling prices to $73.52. The futures term structure indicates a probable contango (-22.1% vs 3M), signaling abundant supply and downward pressure on the roll, which tempers the structural bullish momentum. The DXY remains stable (+0.02%), suggesting that dollar strength is not a major factor of downward pressure for crude. However, the volumetric bias is neutral to low, with today's volume at only 24% of its monthly average and the 5-day average volume down 19% compared to the 30-day average. This indicates that the current rise is primarily driven by news rather than strong institutional volumetric conviction. In summary, the aggregate bias is MIXED, with a strong bullish impulse due to geopolitics, but technical and market structure signals that call for caution.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

WTI Crude Oil is trading at $73.52, a sharp increase of 4.37% on the day following geopolitical news. The RSI(14) is at 43.79, indicating neutral momentum without immediate overbought conditions. The price is currently below the SMA(20) at $75.53 but just above the SMA(200) at $74.12, which acts as immediate resistance. The momentum over the last three days shows a significant rebound from $68.55 (July 6th close) towards the current level, confirming the resilience of the support at $67.04 (1M support). The key short-term resistance is identified at $97.00 (1M resistance), while the major medium-term support is located at $67.04. Today's volume is low (24% of the monthly average), suggesting that the move is primarily fueled by the risk premium and not by strong buyer participation. The 5-day performance of +5.8% and the 20-day underperformance (-19.5%) compared to the average confirm a rebound from oversold levels, reinforcing the bullish thesis.

SCENARIOS & MACROECONOMIC CATALYSTS

On the main horizon (medium term, 20-60 days):

BULLISH Scenario (72% probability): WTI Crude Oil prices continue to rise towards $97.00. This scenario is fueled by the persistence and intensification of geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran, maintaining a high risk premium on supply. Summer seasonal demand and resilient global economic growth would also support prices. The outperformance of CL=F over GSG on a 5-day basis (+4.7pts) indicates relative strength. * Catalysts: Continued escalation of US-Iran tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, supply disruptions, stable or slightly declining DXY, unexpected increase in demand.

BASE Scenario (18% probability): WTI Crude Oil trades in a range between $70.00 and $80.00. This scenario implies that geopolitical tensions remain elevated but without major escalation, while supply fundamentals (contango) and moderate demand limit upside potential. The market is pricing in the risk premium without panic. * Catalysts: Stability of geopolitical tensions without new escalation, maintained OPEC+ production, moderate global economic growth.

BEARISH Scenario (10% probability): WTI Crude Oil prices fall back below $67.04. This scenario would be triggered by an unexpected diplomatic de-escalation between the United States and Iran, a significant increase in global supply (particularly from OPEC+ or the US), or a more pronounced global economic slowdown than anticipated. * Catalysts: Durable ceasefire agreement, increase in oil production, global economic recession, marked strengthening of the DXY.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime (S&P 500 > MA50 > MA200), this BULLISH signal on WTI Crude Oil is based on a major geopolitical escalation. Macro risk remains high, but oil benefits from this risk premium. A Risk/Reward ratio of 3.63:1 is required. The signal is triggered on a daily close above $73.50. The first target (TP1) is set at $85.00, allowing for partial profit taking. The final target (TP2) is at $97.00, corresponding to the major 1-month resistance. The stop-loss is positioned at $67.04, a key 1-month support level. Recommended sizing: standard (1x). This signal is in line with our previous bullish thesis, reinforced by geopolitical news, despite moderate volume and a contango term structure that call for rigorous risk management.