FLOW SUMMARY

The WTI crude oil market is currently influenced by conflicting dynamics. The term structure indicates a probable contango (-26.0% vs 3M), signaling abundant supply and exerting structural downward pressure on the roll of futures contracts. The Dollar Index (DXY) shows slight weakness (▼0.12% at 100.85), which tends to support dollar-denominated commodity prices. However, volumetric analysis reveals that today's volume is only 24% of its monthly average, and the 5-day average volume is moderately up 11% compared to 30 days, suggesting that the recent price increase (+6.91% over 5 days) lacks strong confirmation from flows. The aggregated sentiment bias therefore remains NEUTRAL based on these flow indicators.

The macro-structural risk (MSR) context is assessed as MODERATE (48/100). However, it is crucial to note that geopolitical risk is HIGH (78/100) and energy/supply risk is also HIGH (76/100). For oil, these geopolitical and supply risks act as bullish catalysts, while monetary (68/100) and credit (57/100) risks are potential headwinds. In summary, the aggregated signals present a MIXED bias, with a strong bullish impulse due to geopolitical tensions, but tempered by an unfavorable term structure and a lack of volumetric confirmation.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

WTI Crude Oil is currently trading at $73.29, after recording an intraday jump of +2.63% following US strikes against Iran. This rise comes after two days of decline (-3.83% and -0.63% respectively). The price is slightly above the SMA(20) at $73.07 but remains below the SMA(200) at $74.27, indicating an immediate technical resistance zone. The RSI(14) at 46.47 is neutral, signaling neither overbought nor oversold conditions.

Over the last 5 days, the asset has gained +6.9%, but over 20 days, it shows a decrease of -16.4%, highlighting recent volatility. Today's volume is low (24% of the monthly average), suggesting that the current upward movement is primarily driven by geopolitical news rather than strong buyer conviction. The relative strength of CL=F is underperforming compared to GSG over 5 days (-2.3pts), 20 days (-4.4pts), and 3 months (-19.5pts), indicating structural relative weakness that could limit upside potential in the absence of specific catalysts.

Key technical levels are support at $67.04 (1 month) and resistance at $97.00 (1 month). Support at $57.61 (6 months) and resistance at $119.48 (6 months) define the broader range boundaries.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

On the main horizon (medium term, 20-60 business days):

BULLISH Scenario (60% probability): WTI Crude Oil prices could reach $97.00. This scenario is fueled by the persistence and escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly US strikes against Iran and the increased risk on the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ discipline in supply management and resilient global demand, especially in Asia, could also support prices. Continued DXY weakness would reinforce this momentum. * Catalysts: Intensification of US-Iran strikes, concrete threats to oil transit via Hormuz, OPEC+ production cut announcements, robust demand data.

BASE Scenario (30% probability): WTI Crude Oil would trade in a range between $70.00 and $85.00. This scenario implies a stabilization of geopolitical tensions without major de-escalation, but also without significant new escalation. The downward pressure from contango in the term structure and limited buying volume would prevent a sustained rise, while technical supports would keep prices above critical levels. * Catalysts: Temporary truce in hostilities, absence of major supply/demand news, contango maintenance.

BEARISH Scenario (10% probability): Prices could fall below $67.00. This scenario would be triggered by a rapid and unexpected diplomatic de-escalation between the United States and Iran, or by a significant and unforeseen increase in global oil supply (e.g., a breakdown in OPEC+ discipline or an increase in non-OPEC production). A global economic recession or a drastic slowdown in Chinese demand could also precipitate this decline. * Catalysts: De-escalation agreement, increase in non-OPEC supply, deterioration of global economic outlook.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime (SPY > MA50 > MA200), this BULLISH signal on WTI Crude Oil is based on the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Macro risk remains HIGH on the geopolitical front, but oil benefits from this context – R/R ratio of 3.28:1 required. The signal triggers on a daily close above $74.00. The first target (TP1) is set at $90.00 for partial securing, with a final target (TP2) at $97.00. The stop-loss is positioned at $67.00. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x), considering the contango term structure and the lack of volumetric confirmation on the immediate move, despite the strong geopolitical catalyst. The previous bullish position is consistent with this analysis, as geopolitical tensions have persisted and even intensified since 08/07, justifying a strengthening of conviction on this horizon.