SPECIAL FLASH: The WTI crude oil market is experiencing significant volatility following the announcement of a drop to zero in Saudi crude exports to the United States in July, a first since 1985. This news, representing a significant supply shock, comes after a day of sharp decline (-5.41%) and an intraday rebound of +2.91% today, on below-average volume.

FLOW SUMMARY

WTI crude oil market flows show a mixed bias. The term structure remains in contango (-18.4% vs 3M), signaling ample short-term supply and exerting structural downward pressure on futures contract rolls. However, a weak DXY (99.97) is supportive of commodities, mitigating some of this pressure. Today's volume, at 58% of its monthly average, indicates that the current rebound is not supported by strong volumetric conviction, maintaining a neutral sentiment bias. Overall energy risk remains high (88/100), which, given oil's positive correlation with this factor, acts as a tailwind. In aggregate, signals are mixed, but the Saudi supply news introduces a major fundamental bullish factor.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

WTI's current price at $77.33 is above its SMA(200) at 76.18, but remains below its SMA(20) at 81.48. The RSI(14) at 43.76 indicates neutral momentum. After a 5-day drop of -7.5%, the intraday rebound of +2.91% is notable, but the volume of 165,904 barrels is below average, which does not yet fully validate the strength of this move. The asset is at 35% of its 52-week range, suggesting significant upside potential towards the 6-month resistance at $119.48. 20-day relative strength shows outperformance of +5.7 points compared to the GSG index, indicating relative resilience of the asset.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

On the primary horizon (medium term, 20-60 days):

BULLISH Scenario (60% probability): The drastic reduction in Saudi crude oil exports to the United States creates a major supply shock, invalidating the previous bearish thesis which partly relied on the absence of significant supply disruptions. This fundamental catalyst, combined with a weak DXY and a global market regime