FLOW SUMMARYThe WTI Crude Oil (CL=F) market displays a BULLISH bias, confirmed by current flows. Today's volume stands at 139% of its monthly average, accompanying a price increase, which validates buying interest. The DXY, slightly down 0.33% at 100.95, provides a favorable tailwind for commodities. However, the futures term structure remains in contango (-13.3% vs 3M), signaling abundant supply in the medium term and BEARISH pressure on the roll, which tempers structural enthusiasm. In summary, aggregated signals are MIXED: BULLISH market sentiment and robust spot flows are counterbalanced by a term structure that does not indicate immediate supply tension.### TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTUREWTI Crude Oil is currently trading at $79.11, showing an intraday gain of 1.37%, following a strong 6.04% increase the previous day. This positive momentum is supported by significant volume (139% of the monthly average), confirming buying pressure. Technically, the price is trading above its SMA(20) at $73.02 and SMA(200) at $74.36, indicating a well-established BULLISH trend. The RSI(14) at 61.41 suggests buying momentum without being in an extreme overbought zone, leaving room for further upside. The key short-term resistance is at $97.00 (1-month resistance), while immediate support is at $78.00. In the longer term, the 6-month resistance is at $119.48, with major support at $58.45. It should be noted that the 5-day performance of +12.3% indicates that the initial movement related to geopolitical tensions is likely already priced in.### SCENARIOS & CATALYSTSOn the primary horizon (medium term, 20-60 business days):BULLISH Scenario (60% probability): WTI price consolidates above $79.50 and continues its progression towards $90.00. This scenario is fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly Iran's stance on transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz, which reinforces supply concerns. Sustained buying volume and DXY weakness also contribute to this dynamic. OPEC+'s supply discipline remains a supporting factor.Catalysts: 1. Intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (Hormuz). 2. Sustained buying volume confirming the price movement. 3. Persistent DXY weakness. 4. Maintenance of OPEC+ discipline.BASE Scenario (25% probability): WTI trades within a range between $77.00 and $82.00, with the market digesting news without additional major catalysts. The contango term structure continues to weigh on gains, while deflationary fears (TIPS/IEF spread) temper risk appetite.Catalysts: 1. Absence of further geopolitical escalations. 2. Stability of global supply and demand. 3. Continued contango in the futures curve.BEARISH Scenario (15% probability): WTI price drops below $75.00 and tests the $73.00 support. This scenario would be triggered by a swift diplomatic resolution of tensions in Hormuz, a weakening of global demand, or an unexpected increase in supply. A deterioration of overall macroeconomic sentiment could also weigh.Catalysts: 1. Swift diplomatic resolution of Hormuz tensions. 2. Unexpected increase in global supply. 3. Deterioration of overall macroeconomic sentiment.### AEGIS VERDICTIn a BULL regime (SPY above MA50/MA200), this BULLISH signal on WTI Crude Oil is predicated on escalating geopolitical tensions and sustained buying volume. Macro risk remains HIGH for geopolitics and energy, acting as a positive catalyst for oil prices. A R/R ratio of 2.33:1 is required. The signal triggers on a daily close above $79.50. TP1 is set at $85.00 for partial profit-taking, and TP2 (final target) at $90.00. The stop-loss is positioned at $75.00. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x), given the movement already initiated and the contango term structure which tempers long-term prospects. The previous BULLISH thesis is strengthened by the new tensions in Hormuz, but caution is warranted given an already significant price movement (+12.3% in 5 days).