FLOW SUMMARY

WTI Crude Oil ($CL_F) shows a BULLISH bias confirmed by market flows. The futures term structure indicates a probable contango of -2.5% versus the 3-month expiry, suggesting sufficient short-term supply but not hindering current price momentum. The 5-day average volume is 20% above the 30-day average, and this volume increase is accompanied by a price rise (+14.51% over 5 days), validating the ongoing BULLISH trend through institutional flows. The DXY remains stable, exerting no significant bearish pressure on commodities. The aggregated bias of flow signals is POSITIVE.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

WTI Crude Oil is currently trading at $81.77, up sharply by +3.69% intraday. This advance follows two sessions of slight declines, but the current movement is supported by volume at 95% of its monthly average, indicating renewed interest. The RSI(14) is at 77.65, signaling short-term technical overheating after the recent rally. The price is trading comfortably above its SMA(20) at $73.37 and SMA(200) at $74.59, confirming an underlying BULLISH trend. Key levels to watch are resistance at $95.91 (1-month) and support at $78.00, which corresponds to the entry point of our previous BULLISH position.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

On the primary horizon (medium term, 20-60 days):

BULLISH Scenario (52% probability): WTI Crude Oil continues its advance, supported by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and new trade uncertainties related to Trump's tariff threats against Canada. Resilient global demand and OPEC+ supply discipline also contribute to this momentum. The target is a re-entry at the $95.00 levels. Catalysts: Escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East; US-Canada tariff threats affecting trade flows; Global oil demand exceeding expectations; Maintenance of OPEC+ supply discipline.

NEUTRAL Scenario (30% probability): The market consolidates after the recent rally, with profit-taking and digestion of already priced-in information. The high RSI could lead to a stabilization phase around current levels before a clear new direction emerges. Catalysts: Profit-taking after the +14.5% rally over 5 days; Absence of immediate new bullish catalysts; RSI in overbought territory.

BEARISH Scenario (18% probability): An unexpected de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or a significant increase in global oil supply could reverse the trend. A break of key support levels, particularly the SMA(20), would signal structural weakness. Catalysts: Significant de-escalation of geopolitical tensions; Unexpected increase in global oil supply; Confirmed global economic recession.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime (S&P 500 above its moving averages), this BULLISH signal on WTI Crude Oil ($CL_F) is based on strong price momentum and persistent geopolitical tensions. Macro risk remains moderate, but energy risk is high, with a required R/R ratio of 3.25:1. The signal triggers on a daily close above $82.00. The first target (TP1) is set at $88.00 for partial profit-taking, and the final target (TP2) is at $95.00. A stop-loss is placed at $78.00 to manage risk. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x), considering the initiated move and the high RSI suggesting increased caution.