FLOW SUMMARY

WTI crude oil is experiencing a significant rebound today, despite news regarding talks between the United States and Iran for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The term structure remains in strong backwardation, with an M1/M2 spread of +39.6% vs 3M, signaling persistent tension in physical supply and bullish support for spot prices. The DXY, slightly up at 101.32, is not exerting significant pressure. Trading volume over the last 5 days is at 86% of the monthly average, with a performance of -5.17%, indicating a trend without strong volumetric confirmation, but the current intraday rally is occurring on normal volume. In summary, aggregated signals indicate a POSITIVE bias, primarily driven by backwardation and the reassessment of geopolitical risk.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

WTI's current price stands at $96.64, trading above its 20-day moving average (SMA20) at $94.97 and well above its SMA200 at $81.39, conferring a bullish technical structure. The RSI(14) is at 57.11, indicating neutral to slightly bullish momentum without immediate overbought conditions. After a -5.2% performance over the last 5 days, the asset is recording an intraday rebound of +4.23%. This movement is occurring on volume at 75% of its monthly average, suggesting sufficient participation to validate the direction without being a capitulation signal or indicating exceptional interest. Key levels to watch are resistance at $106.75 (1 month) and support at $94.97 (SMA20).

SCENARIOS & MACROECONOMIC CATALYSTS

On the main horizon (medium term, 20-60 days):

BULLISH Scenario (Probability 43%): The market continues to reassess US-Iran talks as less bearish than expected, focusing on backwardation and supply tensions. Prices are heading towards the resistance at $106.75, then $115.00. Catalysts: Maintenance of backwardation, escalation of geopolitical tensions (excluding Iran), robust demand.

BASE Scenario (Probability 37%): Oil consolidates around current levels, between $94.97 (SMA20) and $102.00, in the absence of major new catalysts. Iran talks are progressing slowly, but without immediate impact on supply. Catalysts: Geopolitical stability, moderate trading volumes, mixed macroeconomic data.

BEARISH Scenario (Probability 20%): A quick and significant agreement on the Strait of Hormuz or a deterioration in global demand leads to a correction. Prices test the support at $90.00. Catalysts: Comprehensive Iranian agreement, global economic slowdown, unexpected increase in OPEC+ supply.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime (SPY > MA50 > MA200), this BULLISH signal on CL=F is based on a reassessment of geopolitical risk and structural backwardation. Macro risk remains MODERATE – R/R ratio of 4.03:1 required. The previous signal from 09/22, which was BEARISH following the initial US-Iran talks, is invalidated by the market's current bullish reaction. The perception of a 'phased deal' now appears less bearish, and tension in physical supply (backwardation) is taking precedence. The signal is triggered by maintaining above the SMA20 ($94.97) for 3 consecutive days. Targets are set at $106.75 (TP1) for partial securing, and $115.00 (TP2) as the final target. Recommended sizing: Reduced position (0.5x). Confidence is adjusted downwards due to exhausted 20-day momentum and the reversal from the previous thesis. The VIX at 16.15 indicates a RISK-ON market environment. Despite HIGH overall geopolitical risk, the asset benefits from a positive correlation with energy risk.