FLOW SUMMARY

The WTI Crude Oil market is currently influenced by contradictory dynamics. Recent volumetric flows indicate a price increase of +8.90% over 5 days with an average volume of 1.17x compared to the 30-day average, signaling a BULLISH trend without strong volumetric confirmation on the current session. The futures term structure reveals a probable contango of -24.7% over 3 months, indicating abundant supply and exerting structural BEARISH pressure on the roll. The DXY, slightly up at 101.12, tends to exert pressure on commodities, but its impact is currently overshadowed by geopolitical factors. In summary, the aggregated flow signal bias is MIXED, with a geopolitical risk premium offsetting contango and the slight dollar appreciation.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

The current WTI Crude Oil price at $74.65 is above its key moving averages, the SMA20 at $73.14 and the SMA200 at $74.27, signaling a BULLISH technical dynamic. The RSI(14) is at 49.63, indicating NEUTRALITY without immediate overbought conditions. After a -14.9% correction over 20 days, the asset has recorded a significant rebound of +8.9% over the last 5 sessions, propelled by geopolitical tensions. Current intraday volume, at 65% of its monthly average, does not validate exceptional buying pressure in the current session, but the price movement is clear. Key technical levels to monitor include support at $73.14 (SMA20) and $74.27 (SMA200), with immediate resistance at $97.00 (1-month resistance).

MACROECONOMIC SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

On the primary horizon (medium term, 20-60 days):

BULLISH Scenario (60% probability): WTI Crude Oil continues its progression, supported by a continuous escalation of tensions between the United States and Iran, leading to supply disruptions or an increased risk premium on the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ discipline remains firm, and a stronger-than-expected recovery in Asian demand could also catalyze the upside. Goldman Sachs has also raised its oil forecasts, incorporating a higher security premium. The target would be the $97.00 resistance. * Catalysts: Intensification of US-Iran confrontations, unexpected reduction in OPEC+ supply, robust economic growth in China/India, increase in risk premiums on maritime routes.

BASE Scenario (25% probability): Oil prices stabilize in a range between $70 and $80. Geopolitical tensions ease without major de-escalation, and production from the United Arab Emirates, which jumped 80% in June after their departure from OPEC, partially offsets supply concerns. The contango structure continues to weigh on roll costs, limiting upside potential. The market awaits new directional catalysts. * Catalysts: Stabilization of diplomatic talks, maintenance of high UAE production levels, absence of new major supply disruptions.

BEARISH Scenario (15% probability): A rapid de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, combined with a significant increase in supply (e.g., an agreement with Venezuela or increased US production), could lead to a correction. A more pronounced global economic slowdown than expected would also weigh on demand. A break of the key support at $70.00 would validate this scenario. * Catalysts: Ceasefire agreement in the Middle East, increase in non-OPEC+ supply, deterioration of global growth outlook, strengthening of the DXY.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a BULL regime (SPY > MA50 > MA200), this BULLISH signal on WTI Crude Oil relies on the escalation of geopolitical tensions, which act as a major catalyst for energy prices. Global macro risk remains MODERATE (RAS 45/100), but energy-specific risks (85/100) and geopolitical risks (80/100) are HIGH and constitute tailwinds for the asset. A R/R ratio of 5.0:1 is required. The initiated +8.9% move over 5 days suggests that the market has already priced in a portion of the risk premium. The signal triggers on a daily close above $74.50. The first target (TP1) is set at $85.00, with a final target (TP2) at $97.00. The stop-loss is positioned at $70.00 to manage risk. Recommended sizing: standard (1x).