FLOW SUMMARY

SpaceX options flows reveal a defensive sentiment, with a Put/Call Ratio of 1.22 for the August 7, 2026 expiration, indicating a dominance of puts and market participants hedging. Concurrently, institutional activity in dark pools (FINRA ATS) remains very low, with only 100 shares traded over the past week, suggesting an absence of significant accumulation or distribution through these channels. Combining these elements, the aggregated flow sentiment bias is clearly BEARISH/DEFENSIVE.

TECHNICAL AND VOLUMETRIC STRUCTURE

SpaceX is currently under intense selling pressure, with the price showing an intraday decline of -3.65% to $108.27. This dynamic is amplified by a volume of 206.59 million shares, representing 274% of its monthly average, signaling strong capitulation or marked institutional selling interest. Over the last three days, the stock has experienced high volatility, with rebounds followed by a sharp drop today. The 5-day performance is -3.8% and the 20-day performance is -27.0%, confirming a pronounced bearish trend since its IPO. The RSI(14) stands at 34.96, approaching oversold territory but without an immediate rebound signal. The price is trading well below its 20-day SMA at $123.31, which is now acting as dynamic resistance. The key support since the IPO is identified at $104.83, a level currently being tested and representing a major technical pivot for the continuation of the trend.

SCENARIOS & CATALYSTS

On the main horizon (short term, 1-3 days):

BEARISH Scenario (68% probability): Current selling pressure, fueled by concerns over SpaceX's industrial and financial challenges, could continue. Today's exceptionally high volume suggests capitulation or aggressive distribution, pushing the stock to break its historical support at $104.83. A Middle East deal, while positive for macro sentiment, is insufficient to counter company-specific headwinds. * Catalysts: Continued institutional selling, persistent negative post-earnings sentiment, absence of new company-specific positive catalysts, confirmed break of support at $104.83.

BASE Scenario (22% probability): The stock could temporarily stabilize around the $104.83 support after the sharp decline, forming a consolidation zone. Buyers might attempt to defend this psychological and technical level, in the absence of major new information. * Catalysts: Moderate technical rebound after a sharp decline, absence of additional negative catalysts, stabilization of market sentiment.

BULLISH Scenario (10% probability): A significant rebound is unlikely in the short term given the current momentum and volume. Only a major, unexpected announcement or a radical shift in market sentiment could immediately reverse the trend. * Catalysts: Announcement of a major contract, unexpected share buyback, sudden improvement in general market sentiment.

AEGIS VERDICT

In a context of moderate geopolitical tensions (hopes for a Middle East deal), this BEARISH signal on SpaceX is based on strong selling pressure and company-specific concerns. Macro risk remains moderate - a Risk/Reward ratio of 2.67:1 is required. The signal triggers on a break and hold below $107.50 on a 1H close. Targets are set at TP1 $105.50 for partial securing, and TP2 $104.83 as the final target. Recommended sizing: standard (1x).